Who won the Iran War?

**SPEAKER_1** (0:02)
This is a global production.

**Christiane Amanpour** (0:04)
Has what's being signed off on now made the world a better, safer place than before the war started on February 28th or not? And I think everybody still thinks that Iran emerges stronger, maybe not a winner, but much stronger than it did, and certainly much stronger than conventional wisdom held. Even US intelligence has said that it appears that Iran may have kept about 70% of its launchers and its capability. I think that's really dangerous for the West. I think it's a very unsatisfactory result of this for America, for Israel, and for those who want to see Iran weaken.

**Jamie Rubin** (0:43)
Now we have a regime that just is so brutal, and now has a reason to be even more brutal because it's been attacked.

**Christiane Amanpour** (0:50)
They know they have a problem. They really know that they have a problem with the people and with disaffection and with anger. This is the latest episode of The Ex Files with me, Christiane Amanpour in London and Jamie Rubin in New York.

**Jamie Rubin** (1:08)
Yeah.

**Christiane Amanpour** (1:09)
So here we are talking to you all as a MOU, a Memorandum of Understanding has been announced, not yet signed between the United States and Iran. So we're going to talk about that in the first segment. Has what's being signed off on now made the world a better, safer place than before the war started on February 28th or not? Are there less complications going ahead or are there more complications and unknowns? That's one thing. Then later on, we're going to talk about what does this mean for Ukraine. Right now, again, as we speak, there is an EU meeting, I believe President Volodymyr Zelensky is going to be there, and it's about the first steps towards Ukraine joining the EU. It's a long way off, but gosh darn it, they have proven themselves to be well worth being included in Europe, particularly if we continue to face a Russia threat. So we're going to talk about that. And then the last bit will be our recommendation. So shall we start? Jamie, we have been talking about Iran, about a possible deal for at least since April 9th when the first ceasefire was declared. President Trump keeps saying a deal is near, a deal is near, a deal is near. Iranians never said that, but Trump did because he wanted it to happen. And now at least they've announced a memorandum of understanding, at least President Trump has.
Iran is not giving any details. And we should say that whatever has been announced, it won't be signed until Friday. So Jamie, before I have you weigh in, let me just read, you know, this is Donald Trump posting on Truth Social. The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete.
Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Toll-free, we'll discuss that. And simultaneously herewith authorize the immediate removal of the United States naval blockade. Ships of the world, start your engines.
Let the oil flow, President Donald J. Trump in capital letters. What are you thinking?

**Jamie Rubin** (3:10)
Well, I'm thinking that since the beginning, we've been talking about whether the US would be able to effectively change the Iranian regime, make a better place for the people of Iran.
We talked about how that Donald Trump and the administration called on the people of Iran to rise up and they would help them. And regime change was indeed the objective of the Israeli government and the United States government. That was discussed extensively. None of that has happened. There is a different group of people in charge, but by all accounts, they are as hardline as you could imagine. And we can talk about that a bit. And then the real truth, I think, is we're not really in a better place than when we started given all the damage done to the world economy and the advantages Iran has accrued in terms of now having shown the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz. Yes, they lost their conventional Navy. Yes, they lost ballistic missiles. Yes, they lost a lot of leaders, but they showed remarkable resilience and they didn't capitulate.
A regime built on resistance whose ideology is resistance. I never thought it would. So I think it's a lot like you and I expected, which is that there wasn't any great gain and there were real losses to the world.

**Christiane Amanpour** (4:32)
So let's just lay it out for our viewers, for our listeners, for anybody who tunes in to try to get an unfiltered view of what's going on. Now, I don't know, Jamie, but maybe this is the last podcast in a long time, maybe for 60 more days that we'll be talking about Iran. Maybe not. But if this MOU does get signed on Friday in Geneva, which Trump and the others have said, this is what JD Vance says it contains right now. Take a listen.