What's REALLY In The U.S.-Iran Deal? & Tren De Aragua Strike

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**Mike Baker** (0:42)
It's Monday, the 15th of June. Well, look at that. We are already halfway through the month. Welcome to The President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the US-Iran deal is now official. Well, according to President Trump. As of the time when we put this episode together, there was no official confirmation from the Iranian regime that they've agreed to a deal. And we have seen how that's played out before. But from what we've seen and heard so far, we'll examine some of the reported provisions in this supposed deal, and the major questions that remain about sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear program, and other key deal points. Later in the show, European efforts to crack down on Russia's shadow fleet continue, as British forces intercept an oil tanker in the English Channel. Plus, President Trump says US forces killed the leader of Venezuela's Tren de Aragua, or TDA gang, in a joint operation with Caracas. And in today's Back of the Brief, one of the possibly strangest intelligence stories of the year, there have been a few, as Beijing warns of foreign intelligence services deploying spy turtles and spy fish to its territorial waters.
But first, today's PDB Spotlight.
President Trump has now announced that a deal has been finalized, declaring on TruthSocial that, the deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. The president simultaneously announced the immediate removal of the US naval blockade, as well as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Pakistani Prime Minister Shabazz Sharif later confirmed that an agreement had been reached, saying both sides had agreed to an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations and that a formal signing ceremony, that sounds like fun, is scheduled to take place in Switzerland on the 19th of June. Now, as mentioned, as of this writing, there was no actual confirmation from the Iranian regime that they've definitely agreed to a deal. And that does seem like an important missing element here. And a consistent one over the past couple of months.
As you've no doubt noticed, the entire negotiating process has been characterized by optimistic statements from the US side, claiming an agreement is within reach or just days away, only to have those statements shot down by the failure of the Iranian regime to follow through or to negotiate in good faith. So the question is, if the president says there's a deal, and the mediators say there's a deal, but the Iranians say nothing, is there actually a deal? Well, perhaps the next 12 or 24 hours will bring clarity, perhaps confirmation from the Iranians, or if tradition holds, perhaps claims from the Iranians that a deal does not exist because they don't agree with the American terms of the agreement. But let's put on our optimistic hat for now, and for the time being, we'll go with what's being said by the White House and Pakistani mediators for the sake of this discussion. The question then becomes, what exactly is in the agreement? Well, that's where things become murkier than they already are, and they are already pretty murky. The Trump administration has confirmed the existence of an agreement, but many of the specific provisions remain unclear. In the absence of an officially released text, analysts are still relying heavily on several leaked drafts that circulated over the past week. Now, while those versions differ in several important ways, they do provide our best looks such as it is so far at that Washington and Tehran supposed agreement. Despite the differences, several themes appear consistently throughout the various drafts. First, this appears to be an interim agreement or memorandum of understanding rather than a final settlement of any sort. The reported framework establishes reportedly a 60-day negotiating period during which the US and Iran would attempt to reach a broader and more comprehensive accord. In other words, while the fighting may be ending, the diplomacy is still in the beginning stages. Second, there is that pesky Strait of Hormuz. Unlike some of the other reported provisions, we now have direct confirmation, well, from the White House, that according to the White House, the waterway is reopening. President Trump specifically announced, that commercial shipping would resume, and that the US blockade would be lifted. Now, obviously, reopening the waterway would help ease concerns in global energy markets. Other recent positive statements regarding an agreement with Iran have helped to lower gas prices in the US over the past month by almost, well, 10%.