What Really Happens at a Fed Research Conference

SPEAKER_1 (0:02)

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio, News.

SPEAKER_2 (0:12)

Okay, so thank you all. The next paper is going to be presented by Omar Barbiero, US firm's exposure to import tariffs, a comparison of the 2019 and 2025 episodes.

Tracy Alloway (0:26)

Can I ask a personal question? When you present a paper like this at a research conference, like this Boston Fed one, do you get nervous? And then, I guess, adjacent to that, like what's the best outcome for you when you present the paper, and what's the sort of nightmare scenario? Would it be someone like finding some fundamental error in the methodology and like standing up in the middle of the conference and being like, there's a serious problem here?

Omar Barbiero (0:55)

Yeah. I mean, many, many nightmare scenarios. Just clicking randomly and then we went, okay.

All right. I would say the worst thing that can happen is that you just say something wrong that sounds dishonest almost. Like you're trying to hide something. Like there's clearly a data flaw, and then you don't highlight it, or you don't, you say in public, no, no, no, this is not a problem. And everybody knows that, no, no, it's a problem. I think the profession is built on trust. And if you lose that trust, it's quite bad.

Tracy Alloway (1:35)

That's Omar Barbiero, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. He's getting ready to stand up in front of a room full of other economists, journalists, academics, and his employer and present a research paper tracking the exposure of US businesses to import tariffs.

Omar Barbiero (1:54)

This is a paper written jointly with Slavic, Hillary and Alvaro, who are there. They happened to be in the room. Our excellent research assistants, Sophie and Lilia also, who helped us with this paper. We wrote it for the conference. It's still quite preliminary, and therefore, we really value your comments on this.

Tracy Alloway (2:18)

How many individual pieces of data would you say were involved in this particular study?

Omar Barbiero (2:24)

Okay, product code, they were around 400,000, I would say. And then you have to multiply that by many different countries. And so you have to keep track of that matrix. The supply chain data set was also quite fun. Because it's kind of a network of companies and it gets big very fast. And you have to track it over time. I have to say, I mean, we have excellent, I have excellent co-authors. We have excellent research assistant. We have excellent computing power. Thank God that can help us with that. And I don't know, I actually...

Tracy Alloway (3:04)

Hundreds of thousands, millions?

Omar Barbiero (3:06)

I have, ah, yes, millions, yeah.

Joe Weisenthal (3:17)

We are at the Boston Fed's annual flagship research conference. This is the 69th year of the event. And the theme for 2025 is, quote, the US economy in a changing global landscape. So focusing on how things like tariffs, geopolitical tensions, industrial policy, AI, et cetera, are reshaping US growth, inflation and the overall financial system.

Tracy Alloway (3:36)

Clearly, that is a very rich vein to mine for research. And the format is a classic central bank research conference. Economists and other researchers are invited to write a paper for the event. They're assigned an official discussant. And then they publicly present to a roomful of their peers, while the audience gets a chance to ask questions or sometimes critique.

Joe Weisenthal (4:00)

Yeah, you say it's a classic central bank research conference, but we've never actually been to one. I don't think, right? It felt like a totally new environment.

Tracy Alloway (4:09)

Yeah, it's true. We have gone to Jackson Hole for the past few years, which is probably the most famous Fed research conference, but it's famous because the Fed chair usually makes a speech and that gets all the attention. We've never actually been in the room at Jackson Hole where they discuss the research papers being presented, because the Fed only allows a certain number of journalists into the room.

Joe Weisenthal (4:32)

The room.

Tracy Alloway (4:33)

The room.

Joe Weisenthal (4:34)

The room. Also, I think it's unfair, Kansas City Fed gets to hold their conference in the most beautiful place on earth.

Tracy Alloway (4:40)

Instead of Kansas City.

Joe Weisenthal (4:41)

In the middle of August, and then the Boston Fed, I mean, it's their choice, but the Boston Fed has theirs in Boston, which is lovely. We both had a great time, but November.

Tracy Alloway (4:50)

It was very cold. Well, the upshot is that this time, we were actually in the proverbial room. So for the first time, we got to really experience and learn what an economic research conference actually is.