What matters most to midterm voters?

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Jocelyn Kiley (0:22)

Even among Republican voters, views of Trump's economic policy impact have become more negative.

Kalyani Saxena (0:29)

With midterms just around the corner, what's top of mind for voters?

It's Monday, October 19th, and this is Here & Now Anytime from NPR and WBUR Boston. I'm Kalyani Saxena. Today on the show, we'll do you a solid and break down some of the AI jargon that's making your head spin.

Robin Young (0:59)

So what is artificial general intelligence?

Larry Edelman (1:02)

An AI that is at the point where it can do just about everything a human can do, at least as good as a human.

Kalyani Saxena (1:10)

But first, it's officially election season. Early voting is already underway in a number of states.

So what are the key issues driving this midterm election? If you're thinking the economy, ding, ding, ding, you'd be right. That's the top concern for voters this year. But there's other issues that could get folks to the polls. Peter O'Dowd spoke about this with Jocelyn Kiley, Director of Research at Pew Research Center.

Peter O'Dowd (1:39)

You know, I don't think it's going to surprise anyone. The economy is the dominant issue this election cycle. The top issue, in fact, for Republicans and Democrats. What exactly did your poll show?

Jocelyn Kiley (1:50)

So 84% of voters say it's an issue that's very important to their vote. It's not unusual for the economy to be the top issue. We've seen that in the most recent elections. But this is one of the highest shares of voters saying it's very important to their vote.

Peter O'Dowd (2:05)

I was speaking with a rancher named John Ladd in Arizona last week, and he's a big supporter of Republicans. He lives right on the border. He told me that the price of diesel and just about everything else is really hurting him. Let's listen.

John Ladd (2:17)

With Biden, not only was the border out of control, but inflation was out of control and...

Peter O'Dowd (2:23)

Still is, under Trump.

John Ladd (2:24)

Yeah, not as bad, but it's still there. So the bottom line with everything that we did, inflation affected our income.

Peter O'Dowd (2:35)

So that's John Ladd here in Arizona. He says the Biden administration is still mostly to blame for high prices, not so much the Trump administration and the war in Iran. In your polling, are you able to discern who's shouldering the responsibility for this economy?

Jocelyn Kiley (2:53)

I mean, it's certainly the case that at the beginning of the Trump administration, a fair number of voters were still saying it was Biden's economy. But when we look at one of the questions we ask is whether people think that the policies of Donald Trump's economic policies have made economic conditions better, worse, or not had much of an effect. And we've seen that the majority of voters, 65 percent of voters, now say Trump's policies have made economic conditions worse. You can contrast that to, we've asked a similar question in his first term, and the balance of opinion was always more positive than negative during his first term. So, and one of the things that we've seen over the course of this term is that even among Republican voters, views of Trump's economic policies impact have become more negative.

Still on balance, there's, you know, they're more positive than negative, but 35% of Republican voters say that Trump's economic policies have made economic conditions worse.

Peter O'Dowd (3:50)

Okay, so clearly losing support on the economy. Now, I should point out that out of the eight biggest issues that Pew flags, many of them are at least closely related to the economy. Healthcare, education, immigration, energy policy, that sort of thing.

Jocelyn Kiley (4:06)

That's right. That's right. The economy enters into all of these things. And even on a topic like the conflict in Iran, a lot of Americans' attitudes about that conflict are economic concerns. Certainly that's an issue that spans more than just the economy. But views of that and the Trump administration's involvement in the Iran conflict are also underwater. Americans are far more negative than positive about Trump's decision to engage in Iran. And we've seen that since the very beginning.

Peter O'Dowd (4:35)

I think it's interesting how issues can come and go. What was critical in 2022, for example, is not so important in 2026 What are some of the biggest changes that you've seen?