We try to fix election polling (update)

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Daniela Charter (0:17)

This is Planet Money from NPR.

Jeff Guo (0:22)

Every time election season comes around, and you see all of those frantic election polls in the news, I think back to the time that I learned just how hard it is to actually do one of those election polls, and why it's gotten so hard.

This was back in 2022 when we, as in We Get Planet Money, had an idea to try and maybe fix polling, and one very generous polling outfit actually let us try out our idea. So we thought we would revisit that story today because we also have an update to how polling is changing, and how our fix is actually still being used, though maybe not how we had originally imagined. Details about that at the end. But first, let us start with a trip that Nick and I took for the original story.

Nick Fountain (1:09)

You and I headed to Poughkeepsie, New York to visit the Marist College Polling Center. Polling is how we figure out what Americans think about anything.

Jeff Guo (1:21)

And for pollsters, this is the most exciting time of the year. Right here, they are making hundreds of thousands of calls to figure out who's likely to win in the upcoming midterm elections.

Nick Fountain (1:32)

And the person tasked with training up all the people who do the dialing is Daniela Charter. And Daniela has agreed not only to let us sit in on a training, but later tonight, she's going to let us do the dialing for a real poll.

But first, she needs to run us through the script we're going to use.

Daniela Charter (1:52)

So why don't we start, Jeff? I'll read that introduction. My first victim.

Barbara Carvalho (1:57)

Hello.

Jeff Guo (1:57)

My name is Jeff. I'm calling for Marist College. We're talking to people in your community and collecting opinions about issues facing residents.

Barbara Carvalho (2:05)

What? Who are you?

Daniela Charter (2:06)

Why are you calling me?

Jeff Guo (2:07)

Daniela's mission is to prepare us for the hundreds of calls we're going to make tonight. And all the different ways people are going to try to avoid answering our survey.

Daniela Charter (2:17)

Sometimes people will come back right away and be like, I'm not buying anything. Or they hear college, I'm not donating. No, no, no, no. We're not looking for money.

We're not selling anything. We just want your opinion. We're doing important research.

Nick Fountain (2:30)

We came to Marist College because, well, full disclosure, Marist has a working relationship with NPR. They do some polls for us.

And also, Marist has one of the top polling operations in the country.

Jeff Guo (2:42)

And one reason they're so good, Daniella says, is the magic phrases they use to keep people on the phone.

Daniela Charter (2:48)

My very favorite is, let's try a few and see how it goes.

Nick Fountain (2:52)

As in, let's try a few questions and see how it goes. She says it works for nearly everything. If a person says they're too busy, well, let's try a few and see how it goes.

If they say they don't have any opinions, well, let's try a few, see how it goes.

Daniela Charter (3:09)

And it works. It really does. Does it work every single time? No, but you'd be surprised.

Nick Fountain (3:14)

You use that term in your personal life now?

Daniela Charter (3:16)

Definitely. Let's try a few and see how it goes. In fact, I think I just said it to my husband yesterday about something. I think about changing his diet. I really do.

I just remembered that. I really think that I said it.

Nick Fountain (3:28)

Daniela teaches us some other phrases we can use to get people to answer.

Every opinion matters. There are no right or wrong answers. It'll just take a few minutes. I promise.

Jeff Guo (3:39)

Though Daniela says her most important advice, it's not a phrase. No, no, no. It's more of a state of mind.

She tells us, when you are out there dialing later, promise me this, you're going to throw a big smile on your face.

Daniela Charter (3:54)

Smile while you dial. Absolutely.

Nick Fountain (3:56)

Smile while you dial.

Daniela Charter (3:58)

Because if you smile, sound upbeat, you sound good, and you sound like someone that the respondent is going to want to talk to.