Wave Watch (with Doug Sosnik and Ron Brownstein)

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SPEAKER_3 (1:24)

Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks On Tap with David Axelrod, John Heilemann and Mike Murphy from the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Donald Trump (1:47)

I know more about inflation. I know more about everything than anybody in this room, anybody anywhere in the world. Well, there's a woman sitting right over there that she's a housewife, but she's very good. She's got a natural instinct for business. She perhaps knows more than I do, but I actually don't think so.

David Axelrod (2:05)

So there you go, Mike.

You wonder what's happening under that thatched dome. But apparently, it's like a data center.

Mike Murphy (2:15)

This will shock you, David, but I actually agree with the President of the United States on this with a caveat. He will know more about inflation than anybody else in politics the day after the election.

David Axelrod (2:29)

Yeah, maybe so.

Mike Murphy (2:30)

Inflation is coming for him.

David Axelrod (2:32)

Yeah, I know. But denial is not just a river in Egypt. It's a way of life. So, hey, we've got-

Mike Murphy (2:41)

I know, we can't deny this. We got the Brainiacs this week.

David Axelrod (2:44)

We got the Brainiacs, another all-star lineup here. We've got the great Ron Brownstein, familiar to our listeners from Bloomberg and CNN, and long, long, long, long time observer of American politics, keen observer. And Doug Sosnik, who was the political director in the Clinton White House, and has his memos on the state of American politics have become a must read.

Mike Murphy (3:12)

On Substack now too, right, Doug? We ought to give you a plug. I think you've launched a Substack, so you don't have to be washed up insiders and take me and Axelrod to get the stuff. Anybody can now, so check it out. It's one of the best. I'm a subscriber.

David Axelrod (3:26)

What benefits are there left of being a washed up insider? They're taking them all away.

Mike Murphy (3:32)

They give away podcasts now like free pens at the bank.

David Axelrod (3:35)

Oh, yeah, that's right. That's true. That's right. I forgot we're here. Yeah, right. Exactly.

Mike Murphy (3:40)

Not here for our looks.

David Axelrod (3:41)

What? So, Doug, you wrote a memo in mid-September that was pretty dire for Republicans. Obviously, you, like all of us, are watching. What updates do you have? I mean, do you see any changes?

All the changes I see seem to be for the worse and not the better.

Doug Sosnik (4:01)

Well, listen, I think there are two different cross-currents operating here. The first is the political environment for Democrats, which really is good or better than any time that I've seen any midterm election. I mean, David, you and I both lived through two of the biggest midterm election losses of a party since World War II and World War IV and 2010

David Axelrod (4:24)

That's how you get to be a washed up insider.

Doug Sosnik (4:26)

Yeah.

Trump's job approval is 10 points lower than Obama's and Clinton's at the time. Yeah. I can get through a long litany of how things have gotten worse for Trump and the Republicans. But the other cross-current here is that the structure of American politics has changed and there's just fewer competitive states and seats. I've never been more optimistic of where we can be based on our positioning, but I am sanguine about the fact that we probably aren't going to be able to realize the kinds of victories this year than we would have a generation ago.

Mike Murphy (5:02)

That's a key point. There's just not as much in play due to redistricting.