UNGA, Trump-Xi, and a Global Bond Selloff

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Tom Keene (0:27)

The book that I treasure the most is a James from Williams College and it's an autograph from Bernard Bailen to James McGregor Burns. That's a really treasured book. So if I go down the hall and I got to pick up vet bill because he's afraid the wind or whatever, and I walked back right by my left shoulder when I walked back as a book that changed our thinking on China. It's called The River Runs Black. She was like 19 years old at Michigan when she wrote the book. It was unbelievable. And what she did is what most people don't do. It was like Dylan. It wasn't the first album. She just kept doing it. Michael Froman was an earlier Elizabeth Economy. And I told him, I said, Michael, you're not the interview of the day. Elizabeth Economy is the interview of the day. And he was very gracious. She's at Stanford at Hoover and, of course, definitive at the Council on Foreign Relations for years. Elizabeth Economy on China.

Liz, I did this with Orville Schell and Jonathan Spence, and I got goosebumps doing it with you.

That guy came off the plane. You've written three books about him. How is he different now when you wrote The Third Revolution over 10 years ago?

Elizabeth Economy (1:42)

I mean, I'm not sure that he himself is different. I think he has always maintained sort of a similar approach. He's always had a strong degree of inner confidence, but that in some respects, mass insecurity about the fact that he's not an elected leader of China. But I think he's always had a centralized approach to his governance, amassing a lot of power in his own hands. I think what's changed is his own position on the global stage, where he is now recognized as an equal to President Trump.

Tom Keene (2:17)

You open your wonderful Foreign Affairs article. This is from Michael Froman's Foreign Affairs, Liz Economy, Writing from the West Coast. Liz, you have the Istanbul Bridge. It's a British boat. And it goes, I guess, from China to Europe. But it doesn't do Christopher Columbus or the Panama Canal. It goes to the Arctic Ocean.

How naive are we, Elizabeth Economy, of the burgeoning China?

Elizabeth Economy (2:45)

You know, I don't think we're that naive anymore. I think there's a pretty good sense, both within the US government and more broadly in US society, about China's rise on the global stage, the range of challenges that China now poses to the United States, whether it's in the trade and investment or it's in technology, or it's in China's efforts really to transform the international system in ways that reflect Chinese values and interests and priorities. So I think we have a pretty good sense of what Xi Jinping is trying to accomplish on the global stage and the way that it challenges us. I think the question is whether we can mount an effective response. I think that's really where the issue rests at this point.

Paul Sweeney (3:29)

Liz, as we get ready for President Trump and President Xi to meet today at this summit in Washington DC, how does President Xi view President Trump and this administration as they get ready to meet today?

Elizabeth Economy (3:45)

I think there's a big sense out there that somehow, China holds all the leverage and that Xi Jinping is coming into this fully confident about his ability to control the narrative and to control the set of discussions they're going to have. I don't think that's actually the case. I think the United States retains some pretty critical strengths. I think we saw, for example, the United States lead a discussion in the G20 that pushed back against China's export of its overcapacity, and the vote came down 19 to 1, with China being the only holdout. So I think they recognize that the United States is still in the game. That being said, we are mired in a war in Iran.

China knows it has a chokehold on the United States around critical minerals and rare earths.

You know, we are going to China to ask for help, you know, on Iran, on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So we have a lot of asks on the table, and China has probably fewer asks of us at this point, which does give him a little bit more leverage.

Paul Sweeney (4:56)