U.S. Intel: Russia Preparing To Attack NATO Nation & Iran's Missing Leader

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**Mike Baker** (0:42)
It's Monday, the 6th of July. Welcome to The Presidents Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And for all you listeners in the US, I hope you had an excellent 250th birthday. And for England, well, I think the sting of losing the colonies was diminished somewhat by an outstanding World Cup victory yesterday over a terrific Mexico team to reach the quarterfinals. Well done. All right, let's get briefed. And first up, a troubling new warning from US intelligence. Russia may be preparing to provoke a direct confrontation with NATO by carrying out an attack on Polish territory. We'll have the details later in the show. The funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei drew thousands of mourners and members of his family, but not the man who succeeded him as Iran's supreme leader. He's actually the Claude Reigns of Ayatollah's.
And I hope that classic movie reference is understood, at least by some. Plus, China is expanding its pressure campaign against Taiwan, sending Coast Guard ships to waters east of the island, in a move that broadens Beijing's military presence. And in today's Back of the Brief, authorities have named a Ukrainian woman as the prime suspect in a bombing that shook Monaco and reportedly targeted one of Ukraine's wealthiest businessmen. Now, what are the odds that she was recruited by Russia's FSB? I don't know, perhaps I'm just speculating. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.
According to multiple reports published late last week, the US has reportedly warned Poland that Russia may be preparing an armed provocation against NATO territory, a limited attack designed not to conquer territory, but to test the resolve of the alliance. Now, it's important to note that the White House has not publicly confirmed the intelligence assessments, but Polish leaders aren't dismissing them. Prime Minister Donald Tusk acknowledged the reports, saying Poland is preparing for quote various scenarios and warning that the coming months could prove critical. Meanwhile, Polish Foreign Minister Władysław Sikorski delivered an unusually blunt message directed at Vladimir Putin. He said, quote, We know what you're planning. Don't do it, end quote. So what exactly are officials worried about? Well, according to reports, US intelligence has warned Warsaw that Moscow may be considering a limited military provocation on Polish soil sometime in the coming months. The goal wouldn't be to launch a conventional invasion of a NATO country. Russia doesn't have the forces available for that, while its military remains heavily committed in Ukraine. Instead, officials believe that the Kremlin could be looking for something much smaller and well, much more ambiguous. One scenario reportedly under consideration is a drone strike against critical Polish infrastructure, perhaps in a electrical substation or a power facility. Another involves a simulated air attack using decoy drones and spoof radar signals, or missiles intended to force Poland to activate its air defense network without necessarily causing any major damage. Perhaps the most concerning possibility is a small cross-border incursion by Russian or Belarusian troops launched either from Belarus or from Russia's heavily militarized Kaliningrad enclave. According to the reporting, Moscow could then claim the incident was of an accident, a GPS malfunction, a navigation error, or even a search and rescue mission involving an aircraft supposedly strayed across the border. Honestly, they would say, we have no idea how our troops ended up in your territory. In other words, the operation would be supposedly designed to give Russia plausible deniability. And that raises an obvious question. Why would Moscow bother with such a limited operation? Because it's really not about Poland. It's about NATO. The Kremlin's objective, reportedly, wouldn't be to seize Polish territory or begin a conventional war with the Alliance. Instead, it would be to create an incident so ambiguous that NATO members begin arguing over whether Article 5, the Alliance's Collective Defense Clause, actually applies. Remember Article 5 states that an armed attack against one NATO member is considered an attack against all. It's only been invoked once in the Alliance's history following the September 11th terrorist attacks. But hybrid warfare complicates that equation. If a handful of unidentified drones strike a power station, if several armed men briefly cross the border before withdrawing, if Russia immediately blames Ukraine or claims the incident was accidental, well, does that constitute an armed attack? Does NATO respond militarily? Or does it spend days and days debating exactly what happened while Russia watches for any signs of division within the Alliance?