Tuesday's Final Takeaways: Consumer Confidence Sinks, Oura Delays IPO

Marley Kayden (0:02)

Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Marley Kayden here in Chicago alongside Sam Vadas at the New York Stock Exchange. Some final thoughts on this session. Today, I took a data focus. We got Consumer Confidence released this morning. It plunged in September with the Conference Board's index falling 6.7 points to 81.9. That's the lowest level since April of 2014

It was also well below expectations for a reading of around 89 Consumers are increasingly worried about the cost of goods and services, particularly gas and energy, while concerns about the labor market are also intensifying. The present situation index fell nearly 8 points, while the expectations index dropped to 63.6.

As consumers said, they expect both business conditions and the labor market to weaken over the next six months. And speaking of the labor market, US job openings fell in August, dropping to 7.079 million from 7.335 million in July and coming in below the consensus estimate. This pushed the job openings rate down to 4.3 percent. The decline was concentrated in professional and business services and health care and social assistance, while openings increased in accommodation and food services and retail. The report doesn't show a dynamic labor market, but it also isn't deteriorating across the board. Hires actually increased to 5.192 million, while layoffs fell to 1.641 million, and the quits rate held steady at about 1.9 percent. Sam, what caught your eye during the session today?

Sam Vadas (1:30)

Well, as I was speaking to Daniel about, I mean, we learned a lot about plans to go public and to delay going public today. Oura became the latest to make a U-turn on its IPO site in market uncertainty. It was expected to price today for its public debut on the NASDAQ. It's not clear what the new date is. The company is, of course, as we know, in the business of health and fitness and wearables. It announced plans to go public last week and is looking to raise up to 2.2 billion dollars.

The latest company to push back plans now for its IPO after OpenAI, SB Energy, we know that's a valuation concern, but also Holtec Energy. Some have highlighted how the timing is notable because the market is waiting for the release of Apple's updated health app. But there's also been some suggestion that companies are just finding it hard to compete for market attention right now with Anthropic's IPO on the horizon. And of course, that was a big story today. Reuters saying it managed to get its hands on that leaked copy of Prospectus, which revealed a net loss of $42 billion in 2025 It also reportedly says it plans to spend $518 billion on obligations over the next few years. What's got some concern, though, as I was speaking to Daniel about, is that it reportedly said nearly a quarter of its revenue comes from just two customers raising concentration worries. The other fear is that Anthropic reportedly plans to warn investors that its models pose a catastrophic or existential risk to humanity.

And that it can have self-preserving behaviors like resisting shutdown and resembling black males. So that very much caught a lot of people's attention today. But heading into tomorrow, it's a big day, Marley. What are you going to be focused on?

Marley Kayden (3:07)

You were just talking about it, microns earnings. We've got them after the close. The bar is extremely high. Sam, Wall Street is looking for about $50.86 billion in revenue, which would represent about a 350% growth year over year. EPS consensus around $31.45 versus the $3.03 it posted a year ago. That's roughly 938% year over year growth. Demand and pricing for DRAM and NAND, of course, will be in focus, but margins, arguably the biggest potential stock moving number. B of A is expecting a percentage in the mid 80s. Now, last quarter, as you know, we saw Micron beat expectations and still fall double digits in response. So the question now is can they say or do enough this quarter to get a positive reaction because whichever direction the stock goes can have major ripple effects across the broader AI and semiconductor trade. But what will you be watching, Sam?

Sam Vadas (4:00)

For sure. Well, earlier in the morning, obviously, it's all about the PCE and that is because it is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. Obviously, off the back of the previous 25 basis point hike, any evidence that that core inflation is remaining sticky and stubborn and that could fuel these expectations and build the case for another hike, we're going to be very closely watched, so we're going to be watching the reaction at the open, particularly when it comes to the bond market, Marley.