Trump could lose everything as alarming video emerges

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David Pakman (1:57)

Coming up today, Donald Trump and Republicans could be weeks from losing Republican control of all of Congress, House and Senate. The numbers are moving and they are very bad for the orange president. Trump also creating questions of his own. He's appearing to struggle through another public appearance. Making the extraordinary promise that the five thousand dollar checks one hundred percent will be done. And Trump is also refusing to endorse JD Vance for twenty twenty eight. And that opens up a very interesting conversation. Trump captured with his eyes closed, sleeping during a nine eleven ceremony. But we are going to look at an incredible sort of collection of stories unfolding all at the same time inside the Trump administration. The Kennedy Center is warning it could be at the end of its rope financially and so much more. And finally, someone is now using AI to impersonate me, not just making fake videos about me. They are using my voice to generate synthetic videos. And I assume much more of it is forthcoming. We've got a show today. If the Trump administration will let us do it, we'll try.

My friends, we have a red alert to start with today. And for once, it is not a red alert that Democrats are about to get crushed. It's sort of at least potentially the opposite. The red alert today is Democrats suddenly have an opportunity to take everything. And I want everybody to really understand what the numbers are showing right now, because this is the exact sort of moment where if we see the numbers without the additional analysis, we become complacent. And that is very, very dangerous. Now, let's start with the House. The real clear politics generic congressional ballot average has Democrats ahead by almost seven points nationally in an average of recent polls. If you look at some of the newer polls, they are even more dramatic. For example, Quinnipiac has Democrats plus 11 Economist YouGov has Democrats plus 11 These are cuckoo for cocoa puffs numbers. Financial Times Morning Consult, you know, they've all got Democrats ahead. So it's not, oh, there's one weird poll. We see a clear Democratic advantage in the national environment. Now take a quick look at the prediction markets. If you look at who will win the House on Cal, she eighty six percent of the money.

I'm not a betting man. OK, but I find these interesting metrics. Eighty six percent of the money says Democrats will take the House major advantage. But now we get to the part that really should get everybody's attention, which is the Senate. Let me switch to the Senate now. The Senate was always a tougher proposition. And the thing about the Senate is even if the wind is very strongly blowing one direction, not everybody is outdoors, to use the wind analogy, because only a third of senators are actually up for reelection each cycle. And sometimes the third that's up for reelection favors one side or the other separate from the way the winds are blowing more generally. Republicans advantage in the betting markets on Cal she for the Senate are now down to 51 to 49 And as you can see back in early 25 when Trump was sworn in, it was 80 20 Republicans and then it dropped to 70 30 Republicans. And then it got tight. Then Republicans jumped ahead again. And it is basically a coin flip at this point in time. The 20 26 map was going to make it impossible for Democrats to take the Senate and look where we are right now. Basically a coin flip. So here is the red alert.