Trader Called 5% Yields—Now Predicts 6%, $60 Oil, $100K Bitcoin | Todd Horwitz

Todd Horwitz (0:00)

The oil we're seeing now is all being traded on fear that oil might have been the selling opportunity of a lifetime, and I still think that that is the case. I think oil is going much lower, and I wouldn't be surprised that we end up down in the low 60s before this is all said and done.

David Lin (0:17)

What's your outlook on the 10-year yield?

Todd Horwitz (0:18)

How about 6% or above? That's where I'm at. I think we're gonna see 6%. I think you're going to see a dramatic push.

David Lin (0:27)

Not by the end of the year, hey, though.

Todd Horwitz (0:29)

But I think it's got a chance by the end of the year.

David Lin (0:31)

Huge gains in gold Bitcoin today as the 10-year yield also rose. Our next guest, Todd Bubba Horwitz of bubbatrading.com, correctly called for the 10-year to explode above 5%.

Last time he was on the show. Now he's gonna reveal what's next. And importantly, he's gonna reveal to us what the Fed intends to do next that may or may not help the markets. We're gonna find out what he intends to do with his trades whether or not the S&P 500 can survive what the Fed's intensions are into 2027, or if this is the repeat of a 2022 crash. While Cauchy traders are predicting that there is a 73% chance that the 10-year treasury yield ends the year above 4.75%, only 58% chance, 5% or above, 32% chance, 5.1% or above. Bubba's gonna reveal his outlook and which probability he agrees with most. Spoiler alert, it's none of these. But let's say you agree with the 5.1% or above at 32%. A $50 trade could yield $97 if you are correct. This video is sponsored by Cauchy. It's the largest prediction market in the United States. And unlike a sports book, you're trading peer-to-peer on real-world events from economic data to political outcomes and the price moves based on public opinion, not a house. Go to the link in the description down below, or scan the QR code here, and new users can get $25 in app credits when you sign up and trade $25 when you use my code LYN. L-I-N.

Cauchy is CFTC approved and available in all 50 states, including California and Texas. Bubba, welcome back. Excited to get your analysis and outlook today. Bubba, congrats on a number of really great calls. You call for the tenure to go up, which is key, because everyone's talking about that now, whereas a month ago, not so much. The Fed raise rates, which you talked about on my show last year, last time, two weeks ago.

Oil, though, you were short oil, but it's gone up. So that's the only thing I want to talk to you about, that maybe you didn't get right, or maybe hasn't come to fruition yet. Are you still short oil, by the way? Welcome back.

Todd Horwitz (2:33)

Good morning and great to be with you, David. I'm still short oil. I'm short more oil.

We're seeing some selling today.

Remember, all I'm really looking at, David, is when we look out into the future, we see oil one year from now is $25 cheaper than it is today, which tells you that the oil we're seeing now is all being traded on fear. It's always being bounced back and forth. And I know that we're having trouble getting the refiners to refine this oil. I'm happy to stay short. Listen, I do have an extra point. I'm not crazy. I'm not going to let it break me. But certainly, it has been a very good trade overall since we started it, because if we go back, I don't know, seven, eight months ago when we talked about this, I said that oil might have been the selling opportunity of a lifetime. And I still think that that is the case. I think oil is going much lower, and I wouldn't be surprised, depending on how this war plays out, that we end up down in the low 60s before this is all said and done.

David Lin (3:37)

It was a selling opportunity of a lifetime when you first talked about it around, I think it was before the fall. That was a great call.

But now it's retraced that level again. So I mean, you could probably make that same argument again. However, you were talking about it also in August. So I guess now is a better shorting opportunity than it was in August. But ultimately, what brings oil down is my question.

Todd Horwitz (4:02)

Well, what brings oil down is A, the demand is not there. B, we have a glut of oil. C, you have basically what we call a fear trade. Again, we have to look out what we call the forward curve. And if you go out and look at oil month by month, it's cheaper. You know, yesterday, when we were still trading October futures, oil was 102 Now we're trading the November futures, oil is 96 And again, if you go to next September, one year from today, oil is trading at 74 So that is telling you that all we have here now is a fear trade. And certainly, the fear could last longer. And we're not going to say that it can't go higher. And I certainly want you to understand that if you're going to make these types of trades, you have to have and know where your exit is going to be. But basically, we've gone from 120 down to 96 And I think the next move will be from 96 down into the 70s and 60s before it's all over. And I would not be surprised to see that happen this year. Again, this all has to do with what goes on in the Iran War. But you got to think, now if you want to think from the other side, and maybe a political argument, maybe Trump gets his war settled before the election. Because certainly, if we go into the election, into the midterms, with oil, with the average person paying, you know, I don't know, everywhere is different. But diesel fuel in California is over $10.