[TOP STORY] Preparing SA’s infrastructure and economy for an ageing population

Simon Brown (0:02)

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This podcast is brought to you by Standlip Acid Management. Invest in more certainty to navigate volatile market conditions. I'm here with Barry Kaganson, he's CEO of Auria Senior Living. Barry, I appreciate the time. One of the often made comments about San Francisco is how we have a young population. That is a true statement, but the other side of the statement is that there are still aging San Africans. We still have a population that ultimately is aging. In a recent piece you put out, you talk around as a country, we need to start planning for that aging population. We can't just sort of sit back in and let it happen. We need to be smart about it.

Barry Kaganson (0:42)

Yeah, absolutely, Simon, that's correct. Currently, the projection is that about one in six South Africans will be over the age of 60 by 2050 But I think what's even more important than that is the amount, and this is the same in South Africa as it is globally, but the amount of older adults over the age of 80 is expected to triple by 2050 So in the next quarter, 24 years, which has a major impact across various aspects of society.

Simon Brown (1:07)

I agree. I mean, frankly, practically all aspects of society. I mean, some of it's just how cities are operating, but I imagine particularly health care systems prepared for people into their 60s, to your point, into the 70s and 80s, and whether it be public or private.

Barry Kaganson (1:22)

Correct. So generally accepted statistic is that approximately 30 to 40 percent of people over the age of 18 need assistance with two or more activities of daily living.

And that can be hygiene, meals, medication management, ambulation, which is getting around, etc, etc. So if you consider that in a relatively short space of time, the number of people needing that will triple. I guess you can kind of appreciate the scale of the problem. As you say, it cuts across all demographics because people are people, no matter the LSM, no matter the affordability of procuring new services. So it is something that needs to be looked at from all aspects, including by government. And I know government in South Africa has a number of priorities that require attention and funds, but this is certainly one that is also going to, and it's going to compete with whatever else is the country needs, quite frankly.

Simon Brown (2:14)

That's a good point. I mean, this is a health care issue, but it's a lot more than just a health care issue. It is also going to be an economic issue, an infrastructure issue, and in both cases, we're looking at municipalities that prevent your national government to come to the help to a fair degree. Regardless of your LSM, some of the stuff needs to be done at governmental level.

Barry Kaganson (2:32)

Absolutely. And the thing about care for older people is that it either takes one of two things.

It takes money or it takes time. Time would be if it's a family caregiver situation. But that time also has a cost because it means that the person who's doing the caregiving has less hours in the day to be productive. And by productive, I mean earning an income. So there's an economic impact to tying up people's time in caregiving for families. And that's the one aspect. The other aspect is they're not always qualified to be able to give the care that is needed. So it cuts, as you say, it cuts across health care. And there's a whole lot of economic implications as well.

Simon Brown (3:09)

There's also, when we think about our retirement, we obviously, initially, we think about the saving. Then we start to think, OK, it's the spending. We get the sense that, yes, medical is going to cost us more in retirement, and that's a true statement, but it's a lot more than that. The key one is where we're going to live, because we're going to need places that have the support services and that we can then afford.

Barry Kaganson (3:31)

Correct. And again, that talks to the demographics. There's a range of affordability from almost nothing to quite a lot. And I think the main benefit of living in a senior living community, I guess that's kind of what you're talking about, is actually more than just the care and support, is actually the social interaction. Because that forms one of the, that's actually one of the key determinants of healthy aging and arresting decline that comes with age, both physically and mentally. So we need to think about the environments, as you said, that people are living in, that's going to be able to foster social interaction. Believe it or not, you can make new friends after 80 I see it all the time. People think that you can't and that you need to set it home by yourself. That's absolutely not true.