This Is What We Just Learned In Jackson Hole

Tracy Alloway (0:00)

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Joe Weisenthal (0:40)

Hello, and welcome to a special episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.

Tracy Alloway (0:45)

And I'm Tracy Alloway.

Joe Weisenthal (0:46)

Tracy, so we are here for you and me the first ever time at Jackson Hall.

Tracy Alloway (0:51)

I know. I always wanted to go partly for the scenery, but also just to get a feel for some of the economic discussions and wonkery.

I've seen this described or heard this described as the Super Bowl for central bankers.

Joe Weisenthal (1:07)

You know what? I like that description. It's very apt because when I think of the Super Bowl, I think of a bunch of parties and people just hanging out. There's the game.

But seriously, you said partly for the scenery. I would say for me, that's 95 I was so jaw dropped the first time I walked in and saw the Grand Tita. I'm totally flabbergasted.

Tracy Alloway (1:29)

Also the chance to finally break out my cowboy boots. I don't get to do that that often in New York.

Joe Weisenthal (1:34)

If anyone saw the photos of me on Twitter this weekend, Wednesday morning as I was scrambling out of the house, I could not locate my... I have multiple cowboy boots. I couldn't find any of them that morning.

Tracy Alloway (1:43)

Sure. They all go conveniently missing right before you need them. No, but it is an amazing event. It's really interesting to sort of witness it for the first time because it is at this kind of unusual moment for central bankers.

Joe Weisenthal (1:55)

Yes, right. And so it's like this weird uneasy piece, which is like inflation has come down a lot. The labor market is robust.

We had this hiking cycle, but no one really knows why and how it all happened and what exactly the mechanism was. And I think that leads to a little bit of anxiety about, well, will the disinflation persist?

Tracy Alloway (2:17)

I think it leads to a lot of anxiety. I mean, these are central bankers who are steeped in economic theory, things like the Phillips curve, which tell you that inflation shouldn't be coming down without a corresponding rise in the unemployment rate. And we've seen the exact opposite happen. And if anything, it seems like there are some signs that the economy is accelerating now. You have the Atlanta Fed GDP now.

Joe Weisenthal (2:40)

5.9%.

Tracy Alloway (2:41)

Right, which is kind of crazy after we've seen this huge run up in interest rates.

Joe Weisenthal (2:45)

No, I know. There's something like, I'm trying to think of some gif of the person sort of awkwardly smiling and it's like, yeah, things are good, but we totally can't entirely explain why. That's sort of the vibe, I would say.

Tracy Alloway (2:56)

Yeah, I think that's right.

Joe Weisenthal (2:58)

So what have we learned? We're going to try and do a little bit of summation of this extraordinary weekend with some very special guests for this special episode. We are going to be speaking with two of our illustrious colleagues here at Bloomberg. We are going to be speaking with Bloomberg Surveillance co-host Tom Keene, who happened to be the first ever Odd Lots guest years ago. And then afterwards, we will be speaking to Bloomberg TV's policy correspondent, Michael McKee.

And the legend, Tom Keene, co-host of Bloomberg Surveillance, Tom, thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots.

Tom Keene (3:31)

It's great to be here, but you got to paint this. I mean, you don't have a video for this podcast, do you?

Joe Weisenthal (3:35)

No, I'll take a photo.

Tom Keene (3:36)

We're sitting here in literally an historic landmark. Back in my Ute, there weren't planes, there weren't trains.

Tracy Alloway (3:44)

Tom Keene and the Utes.

Tom Keene (3:45)

You went west in the car with four screaming kids and no air conditioning, and you went out to the national parks and there were these little gorgeous 1960s madman bungalows.

Joe Weisenthal (3:56)

Yes.

Tom Keene (3:57)

And I expect Rock Hudson and Kim Novak to walk through the door at any moment.

Tracy Alloway (4:01)

These are definitely bungalows. So for people who haven't been to the Jackson Lake Lodge, they're kind of rustic. There's no TV.