This Is What the US Just Did to China on Semiconductors

Joe Weisenthal (0:09)

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.

Tracy Alloway (0:15)

And I'm Tracy Alloway.

Joe Weisenthal (0:16)

Tracy, do you ever want to write a book one day?

Tracy Alloway (0:18)

Yes, you know this, Joe. You know this because I try to make you write a book with me all the time.

Joe Weisenthal (0:24)

I don't want to write a book. It seems like a lot of work.

Tracy Alloway (0:26)

No, it'd be fun. Well, first of all, it is a lot of work. I wrote two book proposals last year, and it nearly killed me.

That's a very long story for another time, but I think it would be fun. We should do it. Odd Lots, the book, come on.

Joe Weisenthal (0:40)

Maybe. I could see an Odd Lots book, but here's what would worry me about writing a book, which is we could have a book idea today in 2022, maybe we get a deal sometime in 2023, and then they're like, it's gonna come out in fall 2026, congrats.

Like that, it's like, I don't have time. It's just too long. And then here's the thing that I would worry about, is that by the time like August, 2026 comes out, that's like maybe no one at all cares about what we want to say in our book.

Tracy Alloway (1:08)

All I'm gonna say in response to that is how many GameStop books came out in 2021? Like there were at least three and they all came out within a year of it actually happening.

Joe Weisenthal (1:18)

Yeah, and by then no one cared anymore. That's my point.

Tracy Alloway (1:21)

Okay, I take the point that it's very difficult to write a well-researched book that says something new and interesting on a topic at exactly the right time ahead of it kind of blowing up in the public consciousness. That is difficult.

Joe Weisenthal (1:35)

But our guest today has done that. We're gonna be speaking to a guest who has a new book out.

And I think the timing could not have been better. I don't even know how the timing was possible.

Tracy Alloway (1:44)

Right, so this is actually a book on a topic that we, first of all, we should say that we have had this guest on before talking about a topic that kind of became core Odd Lots content and also a core issue for the rest of the world.

It truly exploded into the public's consciousness in a way that I don't think any of us weren't necessarily expecting when we first started talking about this. I think that was back in like late 2019 And then COVID happened and everyone became focused on this particular issue or thing. And then fast forward a couple years, and it also became an issue of strategic and even military importance.

Joe Weisenthal (2:24)

That's right. So we've done semiconductor episodes in the past. We've done several of them and we sort of tried to trace the semiconductor supply chain.

And one of the companies at the end of, or somewhere in the semiconductor supply chain that's very important is the Dutch advanced lithography maker, ASML, which applies equipment. And so we're like, okay, who should we talk to about ASML? And everyone said, you got to talk to this guy, Chris Miller, who knows all about them. And at the time he was writing this book and the book has just come out, it's out. And of course the timing is perfect. So Chris Miller, he is the author of Chip War, The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology.

And of course, we just had the Biden administration announcing new restrictions on semiconductor technology export to China, which is something we briefly touched on in a recent episode with Dan Wong.

Tracy Alloway (3:12)

But it is truly the perfect guest with the perfect timing.

Joe Weisenthal (3:15)

The perfect guest with the perfect timing. I'm thrilled that we have Chris back on the show to talk about this new action and how they fit in the broader context in his research. So Chris Miller, thank you so much for coming back on the podcast.

Chris Miller (3:28)

Thanks for having me back.

Joe Weisenthal (3:29)

And congratulations, just like incredible timing because the book just came out, right? And then right then, we have everybody talking about the Chip War, basically, because of these actions by the Biden administration.

Chris Miller (3:42)

Well, that's right. The timing of the regulations that were released a couple of weeks ago were a bit of a surprise to me, but I think the trajectory was pretty clear from the last time we spoke about two years ago that we're gonna see more tightening of controls and more bifurcation between the US and China development in separate semiconductor ecosystems.