The Yield Signal for the Markets, Micron CEO Exclusive, The Obesity Drug Makers' Rally 9/28/23

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

What do you see on the horizon for financial markets?

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Jim Cramer (0:31)

It's Jim Cramer here. You're listening to the opening bell of CNBC's Squawk on the Street. Don't miss a minute of the action.

Carl Quintanilla (0:39)

Good Thursday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with Jim Cramer, David Faber at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Futures are down in front of a packed session for Fed speakers today, including Powell, CNBC's Delivering Alpha Conference, and EcoData, as Joe said, 10-year yield 467 is a fresh cycle high. A roadmap begins with investors on edge, stocks searching for some direction into these final trading days of what is shaping up to be a weak month and quarter.

David Faber (1:05)

Micron shares are under pressure this morning after it offered weaker than expected earnings guidance for the current quarter. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra is going to join us exclusively. That will be later this hour.

And GameStop shares there rallying sharply ahead of the open. The company names Ryan Cohen as CEO. Effective immediately.

Carl Quintanilla (1:26)

Let's begin with the markets. We mentioned what the yields are doing today. Jim, we're getting your steepener. Two's 10's within 50 basis points.

Jim Cramer (1:33)

I said that we would have the D inversion and that you couldn't really be excited about the stock market until the 20 year, which is at four point, one of the non on the runs is now a five. 4.98 crosses over the Fed funds rate. And that would be the beginning of what I think you could finally say.

This market is getting interesting and until it's you can buy a little bit because it's oversold. But that is I think going to happen. We can't seem to find any supply of oil between here and 100 100 we're supposed to be able to bring out some supply according to the technicians I talked to and to the oil companies. But I don't want to give up here because this run has been so quick that it needs almost to consolidate. So here's what I've come up with.

We're going to have a test, I believe, actually know the time, but 142, 143, that's when we bottomed yesterday at PM Oh, you mean time of day?

David Faber (2:22)

The actual time of day.

Jim Cramer (2:23)

Well, no, I just like, I dreamed things up.

David Faber (2:26)

That was yesterday, you're saying.

Jim Cramer (2:27)

I got up at three o'clock to get this stuff right. Of course, the dog relieved himself because he thought it was time to go outside.

In the bed? No, yeah, that's a little too much information.

Carl Quintanilla (2:36)

It happens.

Jim Cramer (2:37)

It happens.

David Faber (2:39)

It should not happen. That should not happen, sorry.

Jim Cramer (2:41)

Okay, no, it was bad. So here's, can I just go back to what I was doing?

David Faber (2:44)

Yes.

Jim Cramer (2:44)

All right, so, Bell, oh no, it's your mother's only, it was yesterday.

David Faber (2:48)

That's one time.

Jim Cramer (2:49)

So what happens is that you can't get bullish until you retest those levels.

And I didn't like the fact that the futures bounced from between four and five-third.

You can't buy the top. You have to, you can't buy up. You have to see if that was a natural level that hold and the sellers really stopped.

Otherwise, you're just coming in based on the fact that October is usually strong after a week September, but it's not October yet. So that's what I'm looking at. I want to see a retest of the low. And David, I've got to tell you, this is a very technically driven market. So when oil spiked yesterday and then the bonds went, yields went up and then the market went down. And then with yields going higher and oil going higher, the stock market went higher. That has not occurred.

So that told me that maybe the capitulation is finally at hand, but we have to see it again. We can't just say, hey, you know what? We're off to the races. Now we have to go back to that level and find out what the heck happened. And the levels, just so people have them, if you want to check those who want to play at home. SPX hit bottom at 4238.63. That was at 1:41 PM. And NDX composite hit bottom at 14.433.60. And that was at 1:40 PM. So those are your two levels. And if those hold, then I think that it might be a fun time and I'll give Wigovia for all.