The Strait Of Hormuz Isn't As Closed As You Think & Ukraine's Smart Drones

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**Mike Baker** (0:42)
It's Monday, the 8th of June. Welcome to The President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. Despite still claiming that a ceasefire does exist, there was another round of strikes between Iranian and US military in and around the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. While new reporting indicates that the waterway isn't completely blocked, ships have been making their way through the strait, although at a much slower rate than before the conflict began. Later in the show, Ukraine is using real-time satellite intelligence to hunt Russian forces.
And why US officials are reportedly growing concerned about Israeli espionage activities. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.
Over the weekend, Iran and the US exchanged yet another round of missiles and drones in and around the Strait of Hormuz. According to US Central Command, Iranian forces launched multiple drones toward the waterway, prompting American forces to shoot them down before they could threaten commercial shipping. Hours later, Iran reportedly fired ballistic missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain, most of which were intercepted by American and Gulf state air defenses. In response, US forces struck Iranian coastal radar sites on Kesham Island and near Garuk, locations that Washington says were being used to support further attacks against maritime traffic. The attacks are the latest reminder that the waterway remains, well, contested and the existing ceasefire may be existing in name only. Yet at the same time, new reporting suggests commercial traffic through the Strait is somewhat more active than many observers have realized. For months, the conventional wisdom has been that maritime traffic through Hormuz has largely ground to a halt, not completely perhaps, but close enough. Between the war, the blockade, Iranian attacks, and the constant threat of escalation, most observers have operated under the assumption that very few commercial vessels were willing to risk the journey. It turns out that assumption may be wrong. According to new reporting from Bloomberg, US military officials have counted nearly 1,000 commercial vessels transiting the Strait during roughly the two months since the supposed ceasefire took effect. That's still, of course, a mere fraction of pre-war levels, but it is substantially more traffic than many public estimates suggested. In other words, while headlines have focused on missiles and drones and diplomatic deadlock, a small amount of global commerce has quietly resumed.
The obvious question here is, well, how?
The answer appears to be that an entirely new operating environment has emerged inside the Strait. On one side sits the route effectively controlled by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC. Shortly after the war began, the IRGC established its own shipping lane through the waterway. Vessels seeking passage through that route reportedly obtained permission from Iranian authorities and, in many cases, pay fees or tolls for the privilege. Ships attempting to transit outside the approved system have occasionally found themselves harassed or attacked by Iranian forces.
At the same time, however, a second pathway has gradually emerged closer to Oman's coastline. To establish that alternative route, the US has reportedly conducted mine clearing operations, moved destroyers through the area, and helped commercial vessels navigate the increasingly dangerous environment. Officially, US. Central Command insists it is not escorting merchant traffic. Unofficially, the US military appears to be doing nearly everything short of escorting commercial vessels.
American forces monitor maritime traffic with radar, drones, aircraft, and naval assets positioned throughout the region. Commercial captains receive guidance on when to move, how to respond to Iranian threats, and in some cases, even when to switch off their automatic identification systems, the transponders that normally broadcast a ship's location to the world. The result is a small but increasing number of vessels moving through the region under what one maritime publication described as, quote, quiet US naval overwatch.
Now, that phrase may be the most accurate description of what is happening. The US is not formally guaranteeing safe passage. It's not announcing convoys. It's not publicly declaring a naval protection mission. But it is clearly creating conditions that allow shipping companies to conclude, possibly, that the journey can be made with an acceptable level of risk. And increasingly, they are taking that chance. One recent report described Iranian fastboats approaching a group of merchant vessels transiting the area. According to shipowners, the Iranian craft abruptly turned away after helicopters appeared overhead. The identity of those helicopters was never officially confirmed, but the message was apparently received. The larger takeaway here is that both sides appear to be adapting. Iran still possesses significant leverage. It can threaten ships, raise insurance costs, disrupt trade, and inject uncertainty into global markets. None of that has changed. What has changed is the growing evidence that Tehran's influence over maritime traffic is not absolute. Instead of choosing between a fully open waterway and a completely closed one, commercial operators appear to be settling into a third option, conducting business inside a contested environment while relying on American military presence to keep the risks manageable.