The Revolutionary Guard Just Took Control Of Iran

**Mike Baker** (0:12)
It's Friday, the 10th of July. Welcome to The President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, even as strikes between the US and Iran continue, a new power structure is quietly emerging within the Iranian regime. We'll examine who is really calling the shots in Tehran. Later in the show, we're getting new insight into President Trump's decision to abandon the Iran ceasefire. We'll break down the intelligence and convince the White House that the regime could no longer be trusted. I'm sorry. Was there someone in the White House who thought the regime could be trusted? It's not an epiphany to realize that the brutal, repressive Iranian regime can't be trusted. Sorry if I'm beating that dead horse. Plus, Mexico is investigating whether the FBI played a secret role in the capture of one of the world's most notorious drug lords. And in today's Back of the Brief, one of the biggest stories to emerge from the NATO summit wasn't a policy announcement. It was the souvenirs. I'll explain while world leaders are flying home with engraved weapons. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Throughout the war, we suggested that one of the conflicts lasting consequences would be a fundamental shift inside the Islamic Republic, specifically that the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would leave the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, as the country's true center of gravity.
New reporting from the Financial Times suggests that this prediction is proving correct. Khamenei was buried yesterday in the holy city of Mashhad, his birthplace, bringing an end to a nearly 37-year era in which he served as the central figure in Iran's political system. And it's hard to overstate how much of that system revolved around the deceased leader.
Khamenei was not just a country's supreme leader. He was the ultimate arbiter between rival factions, the final word on matters of war and diplomacy, and the man who presided over the growth of Iran's proxy network across the Middle East. He oversaw the expansion of the Revolutionary Guard, the IRGC, and to one of the most powerful institutions in the country, with influence over security, foreign policy, intelligence, and major sectors of the economy.
But now, well, obviously, he's gone. And his son, Moshtaba Khamenei, inherits the office, but not necessarily the authority that came with it. Not to mention, Moshtaba is the Claude Reigns of Ayatollah's. Nobody has seen him since his installment as the new Supreme Leader. Moshtaba has not appeared publicly since he was appointed Supreme Leader back in March. But even before taking power, he was a shadowy figure. He lacks his father's revolutionary credentials, his decades of experience, and the personal authority that Ali Khamenei built over nearly four decades at the top of the Islamic Republic. And yes, he's even rumored to be gay, which, and I'm sorry if this comes as a surprise to you, is frowned upon in a very repressive way within the Islamic Republic.
Regime officials and foreign diplomats insist Moshtaba is in control, and they say his absence is due to security concerns. They also say he's recovering from injuries sustained in the strike that killed his father and several members of his family. But whatever the explanation, the optics are extraordinary. Iran has a new supreme leader at a moment of national crisis, yet he has not been seen in public for months. Now in a system like Iran's, power does not simply sit on an organizational chart. It has to be exercised. It has to be demonstrated. And if Moshtaba is unable or unwilling to rule the way that his father did, well, then other institutions will inevitably fill the space. The most important of those, of course, is the IRGC.
The Financial Times reports that analysts and officials now expect the Revolutionary Guard to play an even larger role in Iran's governing system. That means more influence over security, more influence over foreign policy, more influence over the economy, and more influence over the regime's response to both domestic unrest and pressure from the US.
In other words, Mostaba may have the final say on paper in a rubber stamping sort of way, but the IRGC is increasingly becoming the power center that makes the system work. We may already be seeing that dynamic in his first major decision.
Last month, Mostaba supposedly authorized President Masoud Bizehshian to sign a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations with the US over a broader deal to end the war.
But Mostaba also reportedly distanced himself from that agreement. In a written statement, he said he opposed the deal, quote, in principle, but allowed it to move forward because it had been approved by Iran's Supreme National Security Council, a body that includes senior military commanders and is chaired by the president. And that in itself is revealing. A strong supreme leader can own a controversial decision. A weaker one hedges. Mostaba allowed the deal to proceed, but he made sure the political responsibility sat elsewhere. And that's exactly the kind of balancing act we should expect from a leader who lacks his father's authority and is dependent on more powerful institutions to govern.