The Real Winner of Trump’s Trade War? China.

Nat Towsen (0:16)

You're listening to American Power. I'm your host, Nat Towsen, stand-up comedian, political speech writer, many other forms of writer, and most likely to result in wearing a lot of plaid shirts, podcast host.

I'm joined, as always, by my panel of expert, our expert on foreign policy in the military, Chad Scott. Chad, how's it going?

Matt Randolph (0:35)

How's it going really good? I'm actually excited for this episode because these are the types of episodes that I can learn a lot.

Definitely not my wheelhouse. So I'm really looking forward to this discussion.

Nat Towsen (0:45)

You're just excited for Chad's solidarity.

Matt Randolph (0:47)

Yeah, another Chad. I know. The Chads are taking over.

Nat Towsen (0:49)

I know what this is really about. Also joining us, as always, back on the panel, you know, Ms. Mr. Global, Matt Randolph. Matt, how's it going?

Matt Randolph (1:01)

Matt, it's a great day. I got my $1,500 check from Donald Trump for being overcharged in the healthcare marketplace, even though I've literally never participated in the healthcare marketplace. So super excited that all this waste, fraud and abuse we hear about is being corrected.

Nat Towsen (1:22)

That's great.

Wow. I love that I have to re-certify every 18 seconds for my insurance to not get canceled for some reason. Oh, yeah.

Matt Randolph (1:31)

It was not shocking. Like I was literally wondering, are these idiots going to send me a check?

I did participate once Donald Trump became president and I retired. But during the time period I'm getting this check for, I was on my employer covered healthcare. I was not a part of the marketplace. Fascinating, fascinating.

Nat Towsen (1:53)

I'm so glad all that government overreaches over and all that unnecessary expenditure is a thing of the past. Thank God we allowed Elon Musk and five teenagers to set our entire government economic systems straight. So joining us also today, very exciting. As I've foreshadowed in my two Chads, our guest today is Chad Bown. He is one of the country's leading experts on international trade and economic policy. He is the Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, where his work focuses on tariffs, industrial policy, supply chains, economic security, and the US-China economic relationship.

Chad Bown previously served as the Chief Economist at the US Department of State during the Biden administration and as a Senior Economist on President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors. He's worked at both the World Bank and the World Trade Organization and more than a decade as an Economics Professor at Brandeis University, a college that rejected me. He is also the host of the Trade Talks Podcast along with the Financial Times columnist, Sumaiya Keynes, and is the co-author of the new book, How to Win a Trade War, An Optimistic Guide to an Anxious Global Economy. Chad, thank you so much for joining us and welcome to American Power.

Chad Bown (3:09)

Thanks for having me. It's a huge pleasure to be here.

Nat Towsen (3:12)

I want to dive right in. Happy to talk with you today. I know that this isn't your most specific field of expertise, but I want to go in on a little bit of a macro level on the economy just to start. I think a lot of everyday Americans, everyday news-reading Americans like myself are a little confused as to the signals the economy is sending right now. It seems really contradictory. Hiring is slowing down, inflation is still high, businesses are facing higher input costs, it seems. Big trade deficit widening, but consumers are still spending pretty confidently in the stock market, seems relatively strong.

I guess my broader question is why hasn't our economy collapsed? But what's holding our economy together right now? Do you have a sense of what's going on with these contradictory signals we're receiving?

Chad Bown (4:01)

Yeah. As you said, I'm not a macroeconomic forecaster, but I work in a place with a lot of folks who are experts in that area. Just from listening to them and absorbing the economics of this at all, the economy is doing reasonably well. GDP growth is okay. Hiring has slowed a little bit, but unemployment is relatively low. The concern, if there is one, is probably inflation. The Fed has been raising interest rates and inflation is still above its general target that they're aiming for. A lot of that is, as I'm sure we'll get into, concerns about energy, the war on Iran, things of that nature.

What's keeping the economy going? Probably a couple of things. One is the American consumer is still feeling okay.

A big part of it is probably also the buildout of all of the infrastructure for artificial intelligence, all the investment and data centers.