The Real AI Trade in 2026

**Dave** (0:03)
There's a growing sense right now that the AI trade may have already played out, that the easy money is gone. Stocks like NVIDIA got the early hype and fast adoption. They jumped 1000% in the last three years. We've seen a lot of spending so far on chips and data centers and power. The question now though, is how will that spending eventually turns into actual productivity, the kind that shows up in company margins and earnings. We're not there yet, but now is the time to prepare? Because when that moment arrives, it's not today's AI names, it's the companies that are positioned to convert AI into measurable output. Those opportunities tend to be less obvious and deeper in the supply chain, or embedded inside businesses that suddenly start doing more with fewer people. Today on Dumb Money, we're exploring what comes next to reveal the real AI trade in 2026 This is Dumb Money Live.
Hey there, Dave here, along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. Quick reminder, if you don't mind, help feed our AI overlords, the almighty algorithm. Smash the like button, like the smash button. Chris, Jordan, it's our first show. It's January 18th. 16th? 18th? What day is it? It's the 16th. And we're doing our first show of 2026 So our schedule has been very, very relaxed. There's so much going on in the world, and yet we can't get our act together and put on a Dumb Money.

**Chris** (1:31)
Can we just say what it is? We're officially semi-retired, okay?
We knew it was going to happen sooner or later.

**Dave** (1:41)
I've been semi-retired for years. I've been semi-retired since way before we started doing these shows.

**Chris** (1:48)
I am so off my game.
Last year was insane, guys. I just handed over the last three years of my trading account statements and all my trades to Jack Schwager, who said he was willing to update my audit through the end of 2025 So we'll see what happens with that. But I think last year might have been the best year of my trading career in terms of account performance. But I'll tell you...

**Dave** (2:26)
Even without trading last year was pretty great. Like if you were just a buy the ETF and hold the S&P 500, it was a great year.

**Chris** (2:38)
No, no, I don't think you'd know what I'm saying. I know.

**Dave** (2:40)
How much did you outperform the market last year? That's the question we all want to know.

**Chris** (2:45)
What did the market, what did the S&P do last year, roughly? Do you have that?

**Dave** (2:50)
Yeah, it did roughly like 17%, I think. Let me just check. 16.41% with an additional percentage and a half of dividends.

**Chris** (3:01)
I think maybe by...

**Dave** (3:03)
17.84%.

**Chris** (3:04)
Somewhere between 15 and 20 times the S&P is what I did last year. Maybe. I don't even know. I don't even know.

**Dave** (3:13)
And that's why you need a third party to audit you for inclusion in the update to Jack Schwager's book. Which one? Market Wizards. Which one were you in?

**Chris** (3:24)
Unknown Market Wizards. He's doing a new one that comes out this year. That's an extension to that same theme of self-directed retail investors that have done astonishing things in the market. So I'm looking forward to reading that. Bloom Energy, that was a bit... Bloom Energy wasn't even that big of a trade last year, but it's turning into one figure.

**Dave** (3:51)
It's taken off here in the first couple of weeks of this year.

**Chris** (3:55)
Okay, so let's just talk about that. By the way, did you guys have a good New Year? Like, what did you do for New Year? Dave, were you in Mexico?

**Dave** (4:02)
I was in Mexico, yeah. We celebrated, you know, we're on the west coast of the west coast out of the window behind me. So we actually celebrated the New York time zone New Year's with the ball drop and then went to bed. Like, I don't want to be out at midnight.

**Chris** (4:20)
Jordan, was that similar to what you did?

**Jordan** (4:22)
No, we were skiing. So we were in Colorado over New Year's.

**Chris** (4:27)
Oh, that's fun, man.

**Jordan** (4:29)
Yeah, the only downside is, was it New Year's Day? Or New Year's Day, Abigail broke her arm. So, oh no.

**Chris** (4:38)
She better now? A little bit?

**Jordan** (4:40)
Well, I mean, she's in a cast.

**Chris** (4:42)
Yeah, yeah. Well, you'll be dealing with that for a few months. Yeah.

**Jordan** (4:48)
Yeah, well, they said it's a buckle fracture. So technically a break, but not anything super serious. So she's going to be in a cast for another three weeks.