The Perfect Trade

**Dave** (0:02)
It's not often that we claim to have the perfect trade, but this one might be just that. On our last show, we mentioned how the Wizard of Oz could really juice ticket sales for the Sphere, aka Sphere Entertainment, ticker symbol, SPHR. And that was just as some of the early TikTok videos and news reports are starting to surface, and everyone was seeing clips of the tornado and flying monkeys and those coveted foam apples. At the time, Chris said that he'd already pulled some data on the Sphere, including the website checkout page and Ticketmaster, and despite some controversy at the time over the digital remake and additions to the classic Wizard of Oz, he said that the last 30 days were looking pretty good, so he took a position in the Sphere's stock. And since then, the stock is up more than 40 percent. Financial X-ers have, do we call them Tic-Tac, X, what, Fintalk, whatever, they've done their deep dives, they're projecting ticket sales, are way ahead of expectations, they're hitting their quarterly projections just like halfway through the quarter, and they're on pace to hit those targets even quicker next quarter. So the question now is, what's next for Sphere? More locations, more classic movie remakes, more concerts, more stock prices to the moon, or was this all just a fluke, setting up unrealistic expectations that cannot possibly be sustainable? Today on Dumb Money, the perfect stock trade and what we're doing now.
Hey there, Dave here, along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. Quick reminder, if you don't mind, smash the like button and while you're at it, write a review for us for our podcast, because doing those things, they're quick, they're easy, they're free, and they really do help other people find the show. Chris, Jordan, our last show was about three weeks ago. That is unacceptable timing, but we were talking about the Taylor Swift engagement, which seems like a lifetime ago, and we were talking about rumors that Taylor Swift could do a residency at the Sphere, and how that would be an all-in trigger for a stock play, and the Backstreet Boys at the Sphere, all of that seems like five lifetimes ago. But Chris, you were confident enough at the time in the pre-Wizard of Oz data to go ahead and buy Sphere stock. So what were you thinking at the time?

**Chris** (2:18)
Yeah, by the way, Dave, I think the title of this episode, if I had it my way, would have been the perfect social arb trade, but that doesn't index well, does it, on YouTube? So that's why you shortened it to the perfect trade.

**Jordan** (2:30)
By the way, this is on the Taylor Swift thing.

**Dave** (2:32)
Nobody knows what that means unless you already watch our show.

**Jordan** (2:35)
Yeah, on the Taylor Swift thing, I do wanna talk about a mistake that Chris made.

**Chris** (2:40)
O-M-G.

**Jordan** (2:41)
I feel really bad about this. I texted Chris and Dave a meme that said, congratulations, Travis is pregnant or something. And he took it to mean that Taylor Swift was pregnant. And so he put on a big, what are you, a Carter's? Did you buy Carter's or something?

**Dave** (2:57)
That was having the prepared mind. Carter's was a stock pick that we talked about. We knew that if there was a Taylor Swift pregnancy, that would be the trade.
Jordan jokingly sends a meme that Kelsey is pregnant. Chris doesn't read, doesn't pay attention, just immediately buys the stock. What happened?

**Chris** (3:17)
There's more to it than that. So you know, I had planned this fast trade on the Taylor Swift pregnancy to immediately buy Carter's baby, the second that we had an inkling that she was pregnant, and I would just fast trade that stock, because I think there is a thesis that people will have that there will be a mini baby bump of other Swifties wanting to get pregnant, to go through all those life experiences together with Taylor, you know, like side by side virtually. And so Jordan, you sent a text to me and Dave of a meme that said, Travis is pregnant. And I, in my brain, in my dyslexic brain, I saw that as Taylor is pregnant. There were only five minutes left in the market on a Friday afternoon. It was 2.55 cents.

**Jordan** (4:16)
I should have sent that text at 3.01. I feel really bad.

**Chris** (4:19)
Oh my God. So I immediately freaked out. And I was like, oh my God, I don't have enough time. I bought, what did I buy, Jordan? $35,000, $40,000 of call option on Carter's baby. Something like that. The market closed. And I was like, yes, I got it. I got my trade in. And then you got, I don't know at what point after that, I started Googling, like, oh, Taylor Swift is pregnant. But I didn't see anything. I went on X and I was like, Taylor Swift pregnant. I was like, wait, why is nobody else talking about this? And I looked back and I was like, oh no, it was a joke. It wasn't even like, and I felt, so I have never felt dumber in my entire life. Now, that could have been a disaster, Jordan. But I believe I got out of that trade on Monday morning at essentially what I bought it at. But I was totally prepared to lose 35,000 on that mistake.