The PDB Situation Report | September 19th, 2026: Iran’s Targeting of U.S. Forces May Be Getting More Dangerous & Putin’s Wartime Election

Mike Baker (0:07)

Welcome to The PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And yes, thank you again for noticing, I am back on the road.

Let's get briefed. First up, new reports suggest that Russia and Chinese companies may be helping Iran sharpen its targeting of American forces across the Middle East. Open Source Intelligence Analyst and great friend of the show, Ryan McBeth, he joins us for more on that. Later in the show, Russia holds parliamentary elections this weekend. Oh, I wonder who's going to win. With growing strain from the war, but virtually no opposition, of course, to Putin's ruling party. We'll be joined by a good friend of the show, Konstantin Samoilov of the YouTube channel Inside Russia for some insight into that. But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight.

This week, new reports emerged that Russian and Chinese companies may be helping Iran improve its targeting of American forces across the Middle East, basically providing intelligence or targeting data to make the Iranian regime's attacks more lethal. Most recently, investigators found that 14 Russian satellites passed over Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia in the days before an Iranian strike that wounded US personnel and damaged key American aircraft. That follows separate reporting linking Chinese satellite imagery to another Iranian attack on US forces in Jordan. So what exactly is Iran getting from these foreign partners and how much of a difference could it be making on the battlefield? Joining us now is great friend of the show, I didn't say good, I said great, Ryan McBeth. Now you know him, right? Ryan's an Open Source Intelligence Analyst. He won't tell us what that actually means. You can check out his YouTube channel, it's at Ryan McBeth Programming or at Substack. He also won't tell us what that is. It's at ryanmcbeth.substack.com.

If you're not paying attention to Ryan, I don't know what you're doing with your time. Ryan, thank you man for being back here on the Situation Report.

Ryan McBeth (2:10)

Thank you so much for inviting me. It's always a great time.

Mike Baker (2:14)

Well, look at you going right out of the gate with a compliment.

Ryan McBeth (2:19)

I feel pretty good. I'm in Florida today. I'm going to a cigar factory in a couple of hours to shoot a commercial.

Life isn't so bad right now. If the Bully Arangians would stop messing with our video connection, we would have been able to do this a half hour ago, be out smoking cigars.

Mike Baker (2:37)

Yeah, no, you're not wrong about that.

I got to tell you something. Normally, you're the guy with the most interesting backdrop in podcast land. So that explains that you're traveling right now, which explains why your backdrop is so generic as opposed to mine.

Ryan McBeth (2:57)

Which, yeah, I've got to go to Doral this weekend. I got to go to Tampa next weekend.

Us guys up at Fort Meade, we have to work for a living. We can't just steal gold bars from our employer like you do at Langley.

Mike Baker (3:15)

Well, tell me about it, you know what? Look, people will think that people work at the agency simply for patriotic reasons. It's really because we can just abscond with anything. You walk in, you say you need a couple of high-end luxury sports cars for an operation, and they say, well, why? And you say it's secret, can't tell you. Next thing you know, you got $40 million in gold bars stashed away at your home. Yeah, that's a story and a half right there. We should talk about that some other time, possibly over a drink and a cigar. But first, there's some stuff going on out there in the world, man, and we should talk about that.

What do you know and what can you tell us about Russia and Chinese targeting support for the Iranian regime?

Ryan McBeth (4:02)

That's a very good question. I can tell you that there is a non-zero chance that Russia and China are providing targeting assistance to Iranian targets.

The question becomes, how actionable is that intelligence? Because if a ship is moving at 30 knots, and I get information that, hey, we have the USS Abraham Lincoln at this location, but that intelligence is an hour old, well, that ship has moved somewhere in a 30-mile circle, in the time it's taking me to get that information. Now, I got to get that information out of the targeting cell, and I have to get that information out to the launcher, so now it may be an hour, and now you have a 60 nautical mile circle.

Now, for buildings that are sitting exactly where they are, buildings don't tend to move. So if Russia or China has some good intelligence, hey, this is where a fleet commander is, or this is where a big logistics node is, or hey, we got a hit from a guy using his Garmin at the base gym, we know this guy is a colonel, and we know what building he is likely to be in when he's doing his work outlet, we can hit him there, then that targeting information becomes useful. However, I don't believe that Russia and China have officers that are imbedded with the IRGC working with them directly, or even IRGC officers that are in Russia or China who are relaying this information. I think they are more likely just going out on the public internet, buying the satellite data from China. You can even get synthetic aperture radar from the private sources, and you can grab that in front of you.