The PDB Situation Report | July 4th, 2026: Russia Has A New Problem At Home & Iran's Diplomatic Deadlock

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**Mike Baker** (1:12)
Welcome to The PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Ukraine is tightening the noose around Crimea, while Russian civilians grapple with fuel shortages at home. Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges joins us to explain what this new phase of the war could mean. Later in the show, the US and Iran have supposedly wrapped up another round of talks, or sort of talks, or kind of indirect negotiations. But the biggest disputes remain unresolved. Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies joins us to break it all down. But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight. Ukraine has been intensifying its long-range campaign against Russia, tightening the noose around occupied Crimea, while continuing to strike refineries, fuel depots, and other critical infrastructure deep inside Russian territory.
The strategy is designed not only to disrupt Moscow's war machine, but to steadily increase the economic and political costs of continuing the conflict. And those costs are now becoming harder for the Kremlin to hide.
In a rare public acknowledgement, Vladimir Putin admitted that fuel shortages have become a serious problem, as Russian motorists face long lines at gas stations and rapidly rising gasoline prices. The question now is whether this mounting pressure can translate into meaningful leverage on the battlefield. Joining us to break it all down is retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former commanding general of US Army Europe. General, thank you very much for coming back here on the Situation Report. We really appreciate it. And by the way, happy Fourth of July.

**Ben Hodges** (2:53)
Thank you. I appreciate the opportunity and I wish everybody, all your listeners a happy Independence Day weekend.

**Mike Baker** (3:02)
Thank you, sir. And let's get stuck right into it, if we could. This current situation, it almost feels as if we're getting close to some sort of inflection point. And correct me if I'm wrong, but Putin's recent comments, admitting problems from the Ukrainian effort to target the energy infrastructure, the rising gas prices in Russia, the fact that it's becoming more apparent perhaps to the Russian population, that there are costs to this invasion of Putin's.
Am I wrong in thinking that this feels like we might be getting somewhere at this point after all these years?

**Ben Hodges** (3:50)
It does feel that the momentum has shifted in favor of Ukraine.
You know, we're not getting close to the end, but it does feel like, you know, it's so many different ways that the momentum has shifted. The obvious things are, of course, in Crimea, the way the Ukrainians have isolated the peninsula and they're making that place untenable for Russian forces. And now you've got thousands of Russians who are down there for their annual summer holiday or trying to get the hell out of there. And partly because there's no gas, but also because it's pretty dangerous there now. So that's an indicator, and that's not something that Putin will be able to ignore. The increasingly effective long-range precision strikes that the Ukrainians are launching against Russia's oil and gas infrastructure has not only resulted in gasoline shortages and very, very long queues at gas stations, but it also bites into Russia's ability to finance the war if they're not able to export as much oil and gas to China and India and other customers. So there's a strategic effect there.
The thing that the Ukrainians have not been able to stop yet, of course, though, is Russia's continued attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure. So, that's, you know, the last couple of days have seen some terrible attacks. But we, you know, from history, that strategic bombing of populations never achieves the decisive effect. If anything, it makes people fight harder. And I think that's what's happening in Ukraine.