The PDB Situation Report | July 11th, 2026: The Iran Ceasefire Is Dead—Here's What Happens Next

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**Mike Baker** (1:07)
Welcome to The PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And if you're asking yourself, is Mike still on the road? The answer is yes, Mike is still on the road. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the ceasefire between the US and Iran has collapsed. There's a shocking surprise, with both sides once again exchanging military strikes across the Middle East. Former White House National Security Council official, Richard Goldberg, stops by to give us his insights.
Later in the show, Ukraine's campaign against Russia's energy infrastructure appears to be paying off, as fuel shortages spread across parts of Russia and occupied Crimea. Open source intelligence analyst, Ryan McBeth, you know him, joins us for more on that. But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight.
Just weeks after announcing what was billed as a breakthrough memorandum of understanding or misunderstanding, however you want to phrase it, the ceasefire there really wasn't between the US and Iran appears to have completely unraveled. And honestly, I don't think it was actually ever rambled. So it's a neat trick to unravel something that was never really rambled. If you get my drift. Not long after Tehran yet again engaged in attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, US forces responded with a series of massive air strikes. Iran then retaliated, launching attacks against US bases across the region, including installations inside several Arab partner nations. With both sides once again exchanging military blows, hopes for a broader diplomatic breakthrough appear to have collapsed. Joining me for more on this is Richard Goldberg. He's a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Richard's also a former director on the White House National Security Council and a former Navy Reserve Intelligence Office. Richard, great to see you again, Matt. Thank you very much for joining us here on The Situation Report.

**Richard Goldberg** (2:59)
Always ready to join in.

**Mike Baker** (3:01)
Let's start, if we could, with your assessment of where we are now after the past couple of days. Obviously, the Iranian regime decided to fire yet again on commercial shipping in the strait. The US now responded with two consecutive days of strikes.
Where do you think this is going?

**Richard Goldberg** (3:25)
Well, I think the important context to remember that we never had full compliance from the Iranians on what we thought they were supposed to do under the MOU. When we lifted the blockade up front, we issued a general license out of the Treasury Department that, at least on its face, allows the Iranians to sell their oil on the open market and get paid for it, even in dollars, which was a pretty big concession.
And if they do certain other things, they can unfree some more funds, let the inspectors back in, give up the nuclear material, dismantle things, they can get a lot more money out of it.
But upfront concessions on their side are free navigation, freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. No tolling, no interference, no harassment. And from day one, it was very much a, well, a press release from the IRGC, we're still gonna charge a toll, you gotta come through us. And then the other side of the house would say, well, we're waiting 60 days under the deal to impose tolls, but get ready to pay tolls. Then suddenly, you'd see a ship get fired upon. This wasn't the first time this happened since the MOU. And the US would respond with some sort of a retaliatory strike against points along the coast or on the islands around the Strait of Hormuz.
And so even despite all that uncertainty and the lack of sort of complete compliance by the Iranian side, the shipping community took the device of the MOU, sort of the feature of there is supposedly now peace, there is supposedly now a ceasefire, there's a bridge to something more at the end of 60 days, there's an incentive structure for the Iranian to play along.