The PDB Situation Report | August 29th, 2026: Iran’s Plan to Push the U.S. Navy Out of Hormuz & China Upgrades Russia’s Shaheds

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**Mike Baker** (1:03)
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Iran says a proposed agreement with Oman would divide control of the Strait of Hormuz and bar American warships from passing through. Sorry, you can't come in, US. Navy. We'll be joined by retired rear admiral Mark Montgomery to get his insight. Later in the show, Chinese technology is transforming Russia's Iranian-designed Shahed drones into something increasingly resembling low-cost cruise missiles.
Author Gordon G. Chang, good friend of the show, will stop by for more on that. But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight.
This week, Iran announced it's negotiating with Oman over control and revenue from the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran says the proposed framework would divide commercial shipping routes between the two countries and bar American and allied warships from passing through. This all sounds very interesting and confusing. The question is whether Iran can turn those claims into lasting control of one of the world's most important waterways. And what happens if it tries to enforce those rules against the US. Navy? But joining us to break it down is retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, Senior Director of Foundation for the Defense of Democracy's Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation. Sir, welcome back to the Situation Report.

**Mark Montgomery** (2:29)
Thank you for having me, Mike.

**Mike Baker** (2:31)
Could you give us, I mean, there's so much to unpack with the current situation regarding the Iran conflict. But could you give us sort of a top line assessment from your perspective of where we are right now with the Strait of Hormuz?

**Mark Montgomery** (2:47)
Well, first, I'd say that the blockade is working.
At its core level, the United States is preventing Iran from exporting 90 plus percent of its fossil fuels out. That doesn't mean some is not getting through from tanker trucks or some through very small ships that kind of hug the coastline. That might be happening. But it's broadly serving its purpose of economically isolating the Iranian government and putting pressure on it to come to the table.
And I think we're getting a small amount. And this number varies wildly, which is why the Secretary of Energy can say, today was a 12 million barrel day and then a critic the next day say, but the next day was a 2 billion barrel day. And I think it varies wildly. But ships are willing to take the risk with their AIS, their Automated Information System off, their radars off at night of transiting under the cover of US aircraft flying over the Kachouta missiles and drones, with Iranian detection network that's been heavily damaged by US attacks in late June and July on the islands that are in the Strait and the Bandar Abbas coastline. So, that's how I see things going. The problem is neither side is happy with that. Eventually Iran will find that unpalatable and strike out. And the reality is for the United States and our Western partners, that's not quite enough flow, even when you add the pipeline flow in, to restore ourselves to pre-war levels and get overall gas prices going down and the ability to refill your strategic petroleum reserves going up.

**Mike Baker** (4:33)
And I guess the part that's confusing, at least over the past few days, the part that's confusing a lot of people is, the White House, President Trump came out and said, look, we've demined the primary corridor, right? They ended out for the Strait of Hormuz, implying that, okay, let's get back to business because now we've, we've created a safe passage, we've gotten rid of the mines. And then shortly thereafter, then you have the Iranians and the Omanis come out.