The Paper Bitcoin Trap That Could Keep Bitcoin From $1 Million! | Truth Block

Hurley (0:00)

Bitcoin just dumped to 80k today, and one of the biggest names in Macro says Saylor's digital credit will make sure it never sees a million dollars. Meanwhile, Strategy just spent six times more defending its own digital credit than it spent buying Bitcoin. Robinhood put $25 million of real Bitcoin on its balance sheet a week after announcing 10x leverage Bitcoin bets for its customers. And almost half a billion dollars walked out of the Bitcoin ETFs in a single day. So is Wall Street's paper Bitcoin quietly holding down the price? Today, I'll show you what's really behind this dip, why Gromman is half right, and why the next move could be a violent one. This is TruthBlock. I'm Hurley. Let's mine truth.

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All right, let's get into it.

Bitcoin tagged $80,000 this morning, its third red day in a row, right after getting rejected around 87K yet again. That puts us about 7.5% off the September high. So what's driving this correction? Well, it starts with oil. Brent pushed past $105 a barrel overnight after reports the White House asked for strike options on Iran. Higher oil means higher inflation. And the Fed minutes that came out yesterday showed most officials now expect another hike before the end of the year. That's all landing on a bond market that was already breaking. The 10 and 30 year yields both hit 24 year highs this week, even with the Treasury back buying its own long bonds again today. For the last month, this bond crisis was a strange tailwind for Bitcoin.

This week it may finally be catching up. Almost half a billion dollars left the ETFs on Wednesday, the most since June. And about $550 million of leverage longs got wiped out. And the pressure is spreading. America's biggest banks have slid into correction territory, while the S&P sits near all time highs.

So if you bought this breakout, I know how you feel. The rally starts to look fake, and the four-year cycle crowd is out in force, calling for a fourth quarter bottom. But the halving clock is a dead model, and this bear market comparison chart shows clearly how different this cycle has been.

To me, this looks a lot more like a bull market correction. And the charts back that up. After the big breakout in August, Bitcoin chopped sideways between $75k and $82k for almost a month. Then, in mid-September, it broke below that range to $74,000. Everybody called the top, and six days later, it gapped up to $87k. That was a 17% rip. Now look at the right side of the chart. Since September 21st, Bitcoin's been stuck between $83k and $87k. And this morning, it broke below that range too.

But it's still holding above the 50-week moving average, which sits around $77k. And remember, that's the line Bitcoin reclaimed in September to mark the end of the bear market. And as long as it stays above that, the bull trend is intact. Also note that the September dip was actually deeper than this one, about 9% versus about 7.5% today. And the macro may be on our side too.

Noelle Acheson, the former head of research at CoinDesk, was on the Wolf of All Streets with Scott Melker yesterday, and she explained why none of this has broken the trend.

Noelle Acheson (3:04)

The fact that we had that candle back in August, that says a lot about why we are where we are today.

That candle happened on the day that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bissett announced the surprise buybacks of longer-term debt. It zoomed up and it didn't come down, which is quite common after you get that kind of a slope. It went along under 80,000 for a while, then it zoomed up again, and it's continued to edge up since then, today's slight pullback notwithstanding. That says a lot about why the liquidity indicators are not bringing Bitcoin lower. We're looking beyond the squeeze, we're looking beyond the potential tightening of the market, the potential break, should we say, of the current equilibrium. We're looking beyond that. And we saw that in the reaction to what was the first sign of official intervention. It was tiny, certainly, compared to what's coming. What's coming? Higher inflation, higher yields, higher interest rates. And eventually, something breaks and there's intervention. Again, the intervention is not optional at this stage.

Hurley (4:14)

So a lot of money printing.

Noelle Acheson (4:16)

Yes.