The MATCH Act and China’s DUV Imports

Nick Brown (0:00)

It is a button that lets you win the AI competition between the US and China. The US and Japan can jointly have the IF effect of controlling all immersion systems to China. But China has recognized that we have a big cannonball-sized hole, it's not really a loophole, we would call it a cannonball hole, in our export controls, and they've taken advantage of that.

Aqib Zakaria (0:22)

But we have deposition and etching companies, and we've handcuffed our own with the expectation that Japan was going to follow suit and they haven't, right? So there's a fairness.

Jordan Schneider (0:30)

I don't know, Aqib, fairs got nothing to do with it. Fair ain't got nothing to do with it.

Nick Brown (0:35)

Truly, if you are seeking any form of strategic advantage, the foundation of that advantage is indigenous chip making, and the foundation of that is lithography.

Aqib Zakaria (0:45)

Let's rock and roll, baby, let's pass on that jack.

Jordan Schneider (0:48)

DUV exports to China. Why should you care about lithography machines that get sold into the PRC?

What is Congress in particular thinking about doing about this question? And what does it mean for the future of humanity? Light cone, great power relations, all of the above. Nick Brown joins us. A first time ChinaTalk guest. He is a co-founder of the Center for Technology and Statecraft, a new think tank spun out of IFP that's looking at long-term technology, challenges and opportunities that the US faces. Nick was a physics major, spent a while as a software engineer in and around government, also had an arc as an aspiring concert violinist. But we're here to talk not about that, but about what is in pole position for my paper of the year, his masterclass at exploring what would happen if the US cut off DUV exports to China. Nick, congrats on the paper, congrats on the think tank, welcome to ChinaTalk.

Nick Brown (2:00)

Thanks, it's good to be here.

Jordan Schneider (2:03)

So just to set the groundwork a little bit, why should we care about how much compute China has in relation to the rest of the world?

Nick Brown (2:16)

Yeah, I can take a stab at that, then Aqib, you're welcome to. Ultimately, compute is one of these fundamental drivers of AI capability. There's compute algorithms and data, and there's been a lot of work by a lot of people over the past really decade that has established that. Of those factors, compute is one of the most, you could say, governable, is the one that is most possible to intervene and shape where it goes.

Then those factors combine to create AI capabilities, both through training, where you develop the model, and then where you actually deploy it out in the world, and then you realize those capabilities in some kind of context. It could be economic, governmental, security-related. So insofar as you care about the exercise of AI capabilities, which I think is fair to say, many do. If you care about the degree to which China is able to exercise those capabilities, particularly in comparison with the US. Compute, which is the number of chips, the quality of the chips, the aggregate computational stock that's available to them, is one of the fundamental drivers that you might want to examine or push one way or another.

Jordan Schneider (3:35)

Aqib, from ChinaTalk co-hosting, let's do a bit of the tail of the tape as of October 2026 How much compute does China have, and how much compute does the rest of the world currently have access to?

Aqib Zakaria (3:49)

Yeah, I mean, I really appreciate the work that you guys sort of cited on this, at least according to the median estimate. I think, first of all, we have to understand that everyone's numbers are really hazy here.

But it seems like the US actually has a pretty commanding lead over China, right? As long as you're measuring an H100 equivalence, you could say that China currently has maybe around a million, whereas the US has upwards of 30 million.

So, you know, I agree, compute's really important. But Nick, I thought we got them. We got EUV. So what's up? Why do we have to do more? I thought we're winning.

Nick Brown (4:23)

Yeah, I assume that's sort of my tag in to talk about DUV, lithography. So I could maybe, I can give a little bit of a background about EUV.

Jordan Schneider (4:33)

Wait, sorry. Sorry. It's 32

We're not at 30 to 1, because you got to, there are asterisks with the remote control. Yes. Yeah, there are asterisks. Yeah.

Aqib Zakaria (4:44)

So 1 million Chinese design ships in China, we so estimate.