The Last Time Bitcoin Did This, It Went Up 9,800% - Are You Ready? | Truth Block

Hurley (0:00)

Bitcoin just decoupled from the stock market, and the last time that happened, it went up 9,800%.

And it's happening because the debasement trade is back with a vengeance. Japan is burning through billions to save their currency, the president of the United States is demanding cheaper money in all caps, and the biggest balance sheets on Wall Street have done the math on what that means, because they've started buying. So what did Wall Street just figure out? Why did the smartest Bitcoiners I know stop waiting for a bottom weeks ago? And why is this the setup for Bitcoin's first parabolic run since 2021, one that looks a lot more like 2013 or 2017? This is TruthBlock. I'm Hurley. Let's mine truth.

It's Labor Day. US markets are closed, and Bitcoin is sitting at around 79k, consolidating right under the line I've been giving you for three weeks. $82,000.

Clear it and Bitcoin prints its first monthly higher high since the top. But what happened underneath the price this week matters a lot more than the last 3%.

Let's start with this chart from Willy Wu. It shows Bitcoin on top and the S&P 500 underneath, both climbing in tandem for a decade. The line at the bottom is the correlation between the two. And for most of the last 10 years, it's lived up near the top. Because historically Bitcoin has moved in tandem with tech stocks. Now look at where that line is. It fell off the chart. And there's exactly one other time in Bitcoin's life it did that. 2015 Bitwise ran the same math in their report and they got the same answer. So here's what happened after 2015

Bitcoin bottomed that summer around $200.

By December of 2017, it was $20,000.

That's the 9800%.

Run that from the $79,000 we're at now and we land north of $7 million a coin. Now obviously that's extremely unlikely to happen this cycle. But the number was never really the point. A decoupling like this means the buyer changed. And every time the buyer has changed, Bitcoin has gone vertical. That's the case for the first parabolic run Bitcoin has seen since 2021 And for the diminishing returns we've all been told are permanent, finally breaking. But that's just one chart of many. Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-day moving average in August, the line that separates a market still falling from one that's turned, and has closed above it for 15 days straight. We also just had the biggest August in Bitcoin's history, where the price went up $15,700.

To put that in perspective, less than four years ago, that was the price of an entire Bitcoin. Then on Friday night a signal flipped that sounds like jargon, but it's actually pretty simple. MVRV compares Bitcoin's price to the average price everybody paid for their coins. Below zero, the average holder is underwater. Above zero, the average holder is back in profit. And the mood of the whole network flips with it. Well, it just flipped green for the first time in 329 days.

Adam Livingston found the only three other times it spent that long underwater and then flipped. July 2015, April 2019, and January 2023 All three were higher a year later. The worst by 39%, the median by 82%.

And every one of them was the front end of a bull market. And this week, the 50-day moving average crossed back above the 200-day. Traders call that a golden cross. But all it means is that the short-term trend just overtook the long-term one for the first time in 16 months. So what changed to account for this rapid shift in momentum? The answer hit the wires before most of you were even awake this morning. The Bank of Japan once again stepped back into the market to save the yen. For the second time in five weeks, the dollar yen dropped to 154 in a straight line. The first time, Tokyo and Washington spent close to 100 million dollars and the yen fell anyway. Japan has now spent roughly 170 billion dollars this year defending its currency, and the United States bought yen for the first time since 1998 to help out. But none of this changes the math. Japan's 10-year crossed 3% last week for the first time since 1996

So for the first time in 30 years, Japanese savers get paid to keep their money at home. And Japan doesn't need to dump its treasuries to hurt the bond market. They just need to stop buying as many. On Friday, the jobs number came in at 162,000, well above expectations.

Inflation is still above target, and within the hour, the president posted this rant on True Social. Trump posted, A strong country means a lower interest rate. And then he put in capitals, lower the rate or I'll stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit. So think about what that's telling you. The economy is strong, inflation is hot, and the demand from the top is still cheaper money. A country with $40 trillion of debt and over a trillion a year in interest can't afford the rate the market wants to set. The interest rate is a political decision now, and the politics only point one way. Jeff Park called that post the final sign that value investing is over, because price has stopped reflecting value. Park said that metals tell you spot debasement is happening, Bitcoin tells you when the yield curve itself breaks, and the rest of the world is already positioned.