The Key Congressional Races that Could Shape the Final Years of Trump

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I'm Erica Cruz-Gavara, host of The Bay.

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And I'm Olivia Allen-Price, host of Bay Curious.

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There are 14 this year, so it's time to study up.

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Oh, not really.

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Xfinity, imagine that.

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Restrictions apply, not available in all areas.

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Welcome to Forum. I'm Mina Kim.

We're now one week from election day, and one thing that's been clear this midterm cycle is that many voters want change. They want relief from high gas and grocery prices and an end to the war in Iran.

Democrats are hoping, and analysts are predicting, the discontent will translate into a wave of votes for their party and control of Congress. But Democrats are also afraid to get their hopes up after past disappointments. Meantime, Republicans are hoping a last-minute spending blitz, along with the president's red state tour, will stave off a Democratic sweep. What do you think, listeners? Which House and Senate races here in California and nationwide are grabbing your attention? Tell us by calling 866-733-6786, emailing forum at kqed.org, or finding us on Discord, Blue Sky, Facebook or Instagram at KQEDforum. Joining me this hour, Guy Marzorati, political correspondent for KQED, covering California politics. Hi, Guy.

Guy Marzorati (2:17)

Hey, good morning.

Mina Kim (2:19)

Good morning to you. Erin Covey is also with us, editor at The Cook Political Report, who covers the US. House of Representatives. Erin, really glad to have you with us too.

Erin Covey (2:27)

Hey, very glad to be on.

Mina Kim (2:29)

Before we dig into specific races, I want to talk with you about the overall picture, Erin. I noticed The Cook Political Report Friday, I think just moved another 19 house races away from the GOP. Tell me what drove that latest round of rating changes.

Erin Covey (2:47)

Look, at this point, we believe that Republicans pathed holding the House majority has all but evaporated. We're currently projecting that Democrats will pick up anywhere from 12 to 22 seats in the House. They only need three to hit the magic number, 218

They should be in a good position to win the majority regardless. It's really a question of how large their majority will be. In the past couple of weeks, what we have seen is that a number of Republican incumbents have found themselves in much more competitive races than they were expecting. These are districts that Trump won by double digits in 2024 That's where the bulk of some of the Swifter ratings changes have been in because these races have really come online late in the cycle. But it goes to show how much of a drag on Republicans Trump is right now because his approval rating is deeply underwater, largely driven by his handling of economic issues. These Republican incumbents are suddenly having to worry about turning out voters who were running out in droves for the president in 2024

Mina Kim (3:49)

So this is despite all that last-minute ad spending, or maybe the fact that they have to do this much ad spending is revealing to you, Erin.

Erin Covey (3:57)

Look, I think that the ad spending has certainly kept Republicans competitive in places that may have looked worse for them at this point had they not spent as much as they did.

We've also seen the ad spending has been disproportionately good for Republicans in the Senate races. In the House races, it's been a little bit more even than I think you would expect, and that's because Democratic candidates have been raising quite a bit of money and have been out raising their Republican opponents for the past several quarters. And so the money, I think that it makes a difference. Certainly, if a candidate is able to spend a couple million dollars in the last few weeks of the race, that may keep them from losing their race. But at a certain point, all the money in the world starts to hit diminishing returns, and there's only so much you can do to change the narrative.