The job losses that won't show up in jobless claims

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
This podcast is supported by Raymond James, a financial firm offering wealth management, banking, and capital market services that are inspired by people.
Before Raymond James' financial advisors build plans, they build relationships so they can craft individual strategies designed to achieve priorities and pursue what's possible.
That's the power of personal. Disclosures at raymondjames.com. Raymond James and Associates Inc., member NYSE-CIPIC.

**Kimberly Adams** (0:30)
The big shift in the labor market that might not be so obvious in the labor market data.
From Marketplace in New York, I'm Kimberly Adams. We just got the latest reading of jobless claims. Last week, 199,000 people filed for first-time unemployment claims, a thousand more than the previous week. For more context on what's happening in the labor market, I spoke with Diane Swank, Chief Economist at KPMG.

**Diane Swank** (0:56)
We have this sort of low hire, low fire economy. We do know that the rate of separations might have picked up a bit in recent weeks, most notably because we saw a lot of workers that had to be let go due to their immigration status.

**Kimberly Adams** (1:11)
I want to follow up on your point on immigration because there's some job losses in here and some information that actually doesn't show up in the jobless numbers.

**Diane Swank** (1:21)
Exactly. What we saw was there was a large scale firing at the end of July, and there are a lot of confusion during July. We don't think this will show up until the August employment report, but that temporary protected status of Haitian workers and Syrian workers, that lapsed in the month of July. It covered about 200,000 workers, and employers were forced to let them go.
Those are positions that need to be filled, but could give us a very weak read on the August number. But those workers are not eligible for unemployment insurance, so they won't show up as unemployment claims. They also, because they're no longer able to work, they won't show up in the unemployment rate either. And there's yet another cliff that's even larger of Venezuelan workers that are set to see their temporary protected status lapse in October. And that's important because it's about 600,000 people, about 400,000 of which are working.

**Kimberly Adams** (2:19)
But how can you sort of keep track of this if you have these hundreds of thousands of people who are forcibly leaving the labor force but the data doesn't capture them?

**Diane Swank** (2:29)
It's a good question. We do know that they're leaving and it probably will show up in payrolls as holes in the payroll data. So we could see some very weak payroll numbers just because actually those positions got eliminated and they've been unable to refill them yet in the month of August and then again in November after the two big lapses. They could be sort of sprinkled in a little bit now because there was a lot of confusion about it, but I think that's where you're going to see it.

**Kimberly Adams** (2:59)
Diane Swank is chief economist at the audit tax and advisory firm KPMG. Diane, thanks as always.

**Diane Swank** (3:05)
Thank you.

**SPEAKER_4** (3:30)
Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odoo, the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one, fully integrated platform that makes your work easier, from CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part, Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. This is why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you?
Try Odoo for free at odoo.com. That's odoo.com.

**SPEAKER_5** (4:01)
Vantage Score, the modern credit score used by 3700 institutions, including 9 of the top 10 banks. Using over 400% more data than legacy credit scores and built with trended and alternative data, Vantage Score is more predictive, scoring 33 million more consumers than conventional credit scores. Now accepted by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for conforming mortgages, Vantage Score 4 safely unlocks approximately 2.7 million new mortgages and up to $1 trillion in new loans. Better credit score, better data, better mortgage decisions. vantagescore.com.

**Kimberly Adams** (4:37)
There's plenty of debate over how data centers are affecting electricity prices for everyone else. A recent study from the Electric Power Research Institute, a group funded in part by power companies, finds that new data centers on average pushed electricity prices down between 2019 and 2024
Still, consumers are worried that eventually they'll have to pay more for their energy as more data centers come online. Marketplace's Henry Epp takes us to Vermont, where one local utility is trying to figure out the impact of data centers.