The Iran–Gaza Election

**Julia Ioffe** (0:00)
The cost of living is being pushed up by decisions that Donald Trump is making abroad. And I don't just mean the Iran War. We're talking about his terrors all over the world, right? But people still aren't quite connecting the dots, it seems, or that they're able to separate it out for these purposes.

**Peter Hamby** (0:19)
Welcome to The Powers That Be Daily, Puck's podcast focused on the intersection of Wall Street, Washington, Silicon Valley and Hollywood, and the players who run it all. I'm Peter Hamby. It's Thursday, August 20th. Today, I'm joined by Julia Ioffe, with a look at whether foreign policy actually matters in US elections. Well, in Donald Trump's America in 2026, it just might. There's the war in Iran, tariffs, US support for Israel, immigration, the AI race, and much more. As Julia explains though, the foreign policy decisions that matter most to voters are the ones that affect their pocketbooks.
We'll discuss all that and much more on today's episode of The Powers That Be.
Happy Thursday, everybody, and welcome to The Powers That Be. I'm joined today by my illustrious colleague Julia Ioffe, the world's foremost expert in the world. How are you doing, Julia? It's good to see you.

**Julia Ioffe** (1:25)
I'm good on everything. The world's foremost expert in the world on everything.

**Peter Hamby** (1:29)
Julia is here to talk to me about an issue near and dear to both of our hearts, the midterm, specifically how foreign policy is affecting the vote this midterm year. Obviously, the war in Iran is a huge backdrop to the elections, and the war in Iran is creating cost pressures back here at home. We did a poll this week with Echelon Insights, our polling partners. They do monthly tracking on Donald Trump's approval rating on a host of issues, trade, immigration, etc. And they also track foreign policy. In August, among likely voters, Echelon found that Donald Trump's approval rating on foreign policy, Julia, is 37 percent. That's down, not significantly from before the war in Iran, but it's still down. His approval ratings were down across the board before he launched the war back in February. So here's my first question to you, you wrote about this this week.
Typically, unless there are boots on the ground in a foreign country, and we're in the heat of battle somewhere, foreign policy doesn't seem like it trickles down too much to voter sentiment, unless there are cost pressures, unless it's affecting the cost of living, gas prices, the supply chain driving up food prices, etc., which I think is happening right now. So looking at the data, using your big old brain there, what do you think the impact of foreign policy is going to be on 2026?

**Julia Ioffe** (2:55)
Well, I think it's going to be big, but for the exact reasons you said, and it already has been big, right?
I spoke to the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, which is one of my favorite newsletters to read. And he was saying that, look, if the Democrats win the Senate, which is still a big if, he said that you can lay squarely at the feet of Donald Trump's decision to attack Iran in February because it has driven up gas prices. Gas is over $4 a gallon in some places. It's created all kinds of inflationary pressures. And that is the kind of stuff that makes foreign policy tangible to people. Otherwise, America is protected by its massive economy, by two oceans on the east and west of it, two friendly neighbors to the north and south. And unlike many other countries, it is quite insulated from the rest of the world to its great luck. But this year, it's bursting through. And I think what's really interesting is I was also digging through the echelon numbers last night. And what struck me was they asked people to pick what the biggest issue they think is facing the country today. And cost of living was the combined first and second choice for 48% of people they talked to.
But national security came in at 10%, and it was the first choice for only 4% of respondents. Which is interesting because those two things are so, as you and I have just discussed, are so interconnected, right? The cost of living is being pushed up by decisions that Donald Trump is making abroad. And I don't just mean the Iran War. We're talking about his terrors all over the world, right? But people still aren't quite connecting the dots, it seems, or that they're able to separate it out for these purposes.

**Peter Hamby** (4:48)
This is where paid media comes in. And I think you're already seeing this in plenty of states, governor's races, center races, house races, where the Democratic nominee has been settled. There's still a couple more primary states left. They are going up on TV and trying to explain exactly what you're talking about. That Donald Trump's war in Iran is making things more expensive for the rest of us. Maybe you live in Iowa and not only gas prices are higher, but fertilizer costs are high in a big agriculture state or whatever, grocery prices in North Carolina, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And so there are campaign effects that can help drive that message too. But let's talk about, you mentioned Julia gas prices in different states. I just pulled up the AAA National Gas Prices Map, which is one of the most important tools in politics, actually, because politics is very simple to people. If you're paying over $4 a gallon, and they weren't doing that a year ago. So let's look at some key Senate races. Ohio, Sherrod Brown and John Hustead. Gas prices are now $4.14.