The history of the 'October surprise'

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Helena Bottemiller Evich (0:13)

WBUR Podcasts, Boston.

Julian Zelizer (0:20)

Any big story that comes out, which I can't predict or it wouldn't be a surprise, that's what would have the impact potentially to influence the election.

Kalyani Saxena (0:32)

Election season loves an October surprise. So what might be waiting for us around the corner?

It's Tuesday, October 20th, and this is Here & Now Anytime from NPR and WBUR Boston. I'm Kalyani Saxena. Today on the show, we're taking a closer look at why food benefits usage is at its lowest since the Great Recession.

Helena Bottemiller Evich (1:04)

Participation has fallen by more than 52 percent. In Oklahoma, Nevada, and Louisiana, we've seen participation fall by more than 20 percent. And these are really unprecedented drops. We have never seen this many people exit the program over this short of a time period.

Kalyani Saxena (1:22)

And we'll get wordy and a little nerdy with the history of some of our favorite idioms.

Eli Burnstein (1:28)

When we hear seize the day, it kind of puts us in a heroic frame of mind. It makes us think, go out, grab the bull by the horns. But according to Latin experts, the phrase carpe diem is more accurately translated as pluck the day, which is much more laid back, much more relaxed.

Kalyani Saxena (1:43)

But first, you may have heard of a little something called the October Surprise. It sounds kind of fun, but in the world of politics, it's usually bad news. Or at the very least, big news, the kind that could upset or change the direction of an election.

First coined in the 1980s, the October Surprise refers to a game-changing scandal or event that influences voters within weeks of election day. For example, in 2016, when FBI Director James Comey announced that FBI was reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton's private email server. That was just 11 days before election day. And as we all know, Hillary Clinton went on to lose that election.

So what have other October surprises looked like? What kind of scandal does it take to make an election go topsy-turvy? Well, Princeton historian Julian Zelizer has the lore, and he spoke with Lisa Mullins.

SPEAKER_6 (2:44)

Take us to October of 1964 and an arrest that jarred the Democratic Party.

Julian Zelizer (2:51)

Yeah, there's a great new book about this by Timothy Stuart Winter. One of Lyndon Johnson's closest aides and friends, Walter Jenkins, is arrested at a YMCA in Washington. He's having sexual contact with another man, and he's arrested for disorderly conduct on October 7th. And there's fears that this revelation will explode and hurt Johnson's chances. But in the end, it doesn't. Johnson's opponent, Barry Goldwater, for many reasons, doesn't really make a big issue of it, and it all passes through.

SPEAKER_6 (3:24)

And so, LBJ escapes the impact of that. When we talk about October surprises, really, the term became a thing in the 1980s, when there was a monumental international event that was indeed a great surprise. What was it?

Julian Zelizer (3:38)

Well, there's 52 Americans being held hostage in Iran. This has consumed Jimmy Carter's presidency. And the Reagan, Ronald Reagan, is running against Carter and his team, including William Casey, who's running his campaign, are worried that Carter's going to announce a big deal right before the election, and that will help him get reelected. In the end, the deal doesn't come. The hostages are released after Reagan is inaugurated. And since then, there's been speculation and argument that, in fact, Reagan pulled off the October surprise as his people stifled the release of the hostages, although that has not been proven.

SPEAKER_6 (4:16)

And when you say the hostages were released right after Reagan took the oath, like how much after?

Julian Zelizer (4:23)

Literally, you can see the split screen coverage that took place. I show my students all the time. They go from the inauguration to the release of the hostages. And what we know is the Iranians wanted to kind of get back at Carter and humiliate him one last time.

SPEAKER_6 (4:39)

So in the fall of 2008, then Senators Barack Obama and the late John McCain were running for president. What was the October surprise that year?

Julian Zelizer (4:48)

A crashing financial market. It wasn't something done by any politician or the revelation of some news story, but the markets totally collapsed as we all remember. And the responses of each candidate really were important.

John McCain didn't do well in public appearances, trying to say what he would do, and working with Congressional Republicans, where Obama seemed like a president in some televised events. He seemed very cool and deliberate. And in fact, many people think it strengthened his campaign. And it obviously hurt the Republican incumbent, George W. Bush.