The G.O.P.’s Defeatist Turn

Leigh Ann Caldwell (0:01)

There's no love lost between the two. And you would think that Jim Jordan kind of has his Freedom Caucus base of support, but there's some of those members who think that he's kind of betrayed the cause because he has kind of gone mainstream.

Peter Hamby (0:23)

Welcome to The Powers That Be Daily, Puck's podcast focused on the intersection of Wall Street, Washington, Silicon Valley, and Hollywood, and the players who run it all. I'm Peter Hamby.

It's Tuesday, October 20th. Today, I'm joined by Leigh Ann Caldwell, who tells me that House Republicans are now pessimistically talking about being in the minority next year. But ambitious House members like Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise are still gunning to lead the GOP caucus in the next Congress. And Leigh Ann tells me that Mike Johnson might want another turn as well.

We also take a look at one critical House race in the Philadelphia suburbs that tells us a lot about the midterm environment and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's political ambitions. We'll discuss all that and much more on today's episode of The Powers That Be.

Happy Tuesday, everybody, and welcome to The Powers That Be. I'm joined today by my colleague, Leigh Ann Caldwell. We're going to talk about a burgeoning battle to lead House Republicans in the next Congress, whether they're in the majority or the minority. You've got Mike Johnson, you've got Jim Jordan, you've got Steve Scalise, and Leigh Ann has some new reporting on how they're jostling, and it's a surprise, kind of, at least to me. Mike Johnson wouldn't leave Congress and go back to Shreveport. He kind of hinted about that a few weeks ago, but sounds like he might be staying on. We're also going to talk about a house race in the Philadelphia suburbs that tells us a lot about the battle for Congress, and also a little bit about Governor Josh Shapiro, who's trying to flex his political muscles in the Commonwealth ahead of a likely run for president in 2028 Leigh Ann, good to see you. I probably mangled your reporting, but tell us what's going on with House Republicans. We know that Jim Jordan wants to take over. We know and we have known for a long time that Steve Scalise wants to take over. I would have thought that Mike Johnson would be tired after a pretty rocky, although impressive that he's been speaker for this long, given past elections in the Republican caucus and all the tensions inside of the caucus. What's the latest? How are they jostling? I guess we should start with Mike Johnson. What are his actual plans if he's even letting them on?

Leigh Ann Caldwell (2:44)

Yeah, it's actually going to be three years, I believe next week that Mike Johnson will be Speaker of the House, which is an eternity for Republicans in this modern day Republican era.

Conventional wisdom on the Hill for most people anyway, was that if there's steep losses in the midterms, someone has to go and that's usually the Speaker of the House.

They shouldn't be rewarded for losing. Then Mike Johnson gave an interview to Fox News where he said, whatever God says he will do, maybe that I'll start a long care business in Shreveport. So everyone's like, okay, yeah, he's on his way out. And then a week later, which was just last week, he over-corrected on CBS News, or reset expectations, I should say, and said that he would expect that his colleagues would ask him to stay on regardless of if they're in the minority or majority. And so that really threw everything for a loop. No one is really sure what he's going to do, but his staff, Mariana and I are reporting, is telling K Street that he is going to run for minority leader. His staff are also on a staff delegation to Europe with bipartisan staff members. They said the same.

Peter Hamby (4:13)

Sorry to interrupt, Leigh Ann. Are they saying minority or majority speaker?

Leigh Ann Caldwell (4:17)

No one thinks they're going to be in the majority. Okay, just clarify. Literally no one.

So yeah, but I mean, because that's the reason this is a problem, because if they go from the majority to the minority, they lose a leadership position, they lose the Speaker of the House. And that's why the top is getting really crowded. So anyway, regardless of what Mike Johnson's plans are, people thought he was out or going to be on his way out, maybe go make some money, go start a lawn care business, whatever.

And it's really throwing Steve Scalise for a loop that Johnson indicated he might stay on. It's throwing a lot of members for a loop. We even talked to some incoming freshmen who are likely to get elected. They were not expecting that either. So it could be a very messy, potentially three-way race for minority leader.