The Fed's Mistake | Macro Mondays: July 6, 2026

**Andreas Steno Larsen** (0:00)
Sometimes it may be good, sometimes it may be shit. Hello all there.

**Mikkel Rosenvold** (0:22)
Welcome to Real Vision. Welcome to Macro Mondays. My name is Mikkel Rosenvold. I'm your usual host. And we have a great show for you today. We're going to be covering the inflation picture, the oil outlook, the latest on the Korean picture, as we usually try every week. Obviously the latest in the memory market. And a little bit of a question. Can the US actually win the World Cup with the backing that they have?
So lots of great things to unpack for you today. With me as usual, my co-host, Andreas. And Andreas, maybe let's, if you can move your head a little bit to your right, let's address the very literal elephant in the room.
You're not in Copenhagen today. Tell us where you are and how are things down there?

**Andreas Steno Larsen** (1:09)
Yes, I'm in France on the island called Corse in French, Cosica, I think goes by that name in English.
Great island, very cozy, not a lot of tourists actually. I know it's pretty early, given that most Europeans tend to go on vacation in a few weeks from now at the earliest. So in any case, I'm really enjoying my time here. And it seems like the internet connection is pretty decent here. You know, as a rule of thumb, we're Northern Europeans, right? Every time you cross a border to the south, the infrastructure, especially in relation to internet, horses, so I've only crossed two borders, so we're still running.

**Mikkel Rosenvold** (1:49)
Technically, yeah.
For an open dress. I have no excuses, I'm still in Copenhagen. I just forgot my mic at home, so I'm speaking into AirPods. So let's just call this a holiday edition of, or vacation edition of Macro Mondays. Anyways, Andreas, lots of great stuff to unpack. Speaking of France, Andreas, France has a bit of a mixed reputation in some sorts. I feel like it's one of the teams I enjoy watching the most in the World Cup currently. Not a lot of people are rooting for them, and even our good friend Raoul here told us anybody but France to win the World Cup. We can get his tweet up here.
You seem to enjoy France, but it's a bit of a mixed reputation.

**Andreas Steno Larsen** (2:31)
So let's be honest, right? I think France is the only country that everybody's got an opinion on, most often a negative opinion, while they still go on vacation there every year.
So it's the mother of all hypocrisy. They're humiliated on a running basis by, oh, they always surrender in geopolitics. Everyone's calling them out in terms of the World Cup team now, right? And still, everyone loves their food, everyone loves their wine, and everyone loves visiting the country. So I'm here, right? And I'll be cheering for France for the rest of the World Cup. I'll have to admit for that.

**Mikkel Rosenvold** (3:15)
The absolute south of France. We definitely won't be cheering for Norway, that's for sure, even though they're doing painfully well at the moment. Anyway, Andreas, let's get on with the macro stuff.
We had some sneak peeks into the rolling over of inflation that you've been forecasting or expecting for a few weeks now. There was last week with numbers out of the eurozone and also some indications from the ECB summit in Portugal. Are you still bullish on inflation rolling over, on the inflation picture going into the coming months, or what's you're feeling right now based on the numbers that you're tracking?

**Andreas Steno Larsen** (3:52)
Couple of things.
We got the numbers from the eurozone around the calendar turn, and they looked promising. On a eurozone aggregate level, we got a surprise between 0.2 and 0.3 percent point below the economist consensus. That's point number one. It wasn't really particularly energy-driven. Of course, energy came down, but it was pretty broad-based. If you look at some of the detailed data that we have from some of the larger regions in Germany already delivering all of the soft components of the index, I'd argue that it was as soft as you could have hoped for. They're incredibly soft inflation report for June. Obviously, in roughly a week from now, we get the inflation report from the US. If you look at inflation markets, so inflation fixings priced by inflation spot desks at banks, they have a substantially lower expectation for the inflation print in the US compared to the economists surveyed. I'm certainly on team markets here. The now casting that we're doing is also on the low side of the expectations of many of the market participants. Again, I also think that the job report we got on Friday from the US confirmed that some of the impacts that we saw in May were skewed due to the exact World Cup that we discussed to begin with.