The Fed Could Blow Up Bitcoin’s Breakout Today

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
You know those tiny back-to-school emergencies that somehow become your problem? That's why I love Uber Eats. You can order school supplies, snacks, and lunchbox essentials for $5 or less. So when your kid casually drops, I don't like peanut butter anymore, or I need five green highlighters for a project due tomorrow. Uber Eats has you covered. Get everything you need for back-to-school today from your favorite brands like Albion Staples and Uber Eats. Order now.
N's 9-7, $5 or less before taxes and fees. Select items only, availability varies. See app for details.

**Scott Melker** (0:30)
The Fed could blow up Bitcoin's breakout today. I, for one, am extremely excited to hear Kevin Warsh say absolutely nothing in Jackson Hole. The world is waiting with bated breath to see what he will say, but they should probably be waiting to see what he won't say. Yeah, we're going to talk about that today. We've got a big show. We've got a lot of guests. We have Jason and Santi here at the beginning, then we've got Ariane at the end, and of course, the weekly reckoning. So three guests, a summary of the week, and me while woefully underprepared. Let's go.
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the show. That was the second worst intro that I've done in the last six months. The worst was yesterday when I misquoted the price and then froze completely for 15 seconds. I'm not going to say that Bitcoin going up has broken my brain, but something certainly has this week, and I'm really glad it's Friday, and I'm really glad that I have two amazing guests here to talk instead of me.
Good morning, gentlemen. It's one of the weeks. I'm having one of those weeks.

**Ran Neuner** (1:49)
I miss that intro music, man.

**Scott Melker** (1:51)
Yeah, yesterday I hit it with, I was like, Bitcoin breaks 100K. And then I was like, no, no, it didn't. What am I talking about?

**Ran Neuner** (1:58)
Look, maybe it's a simulation, you're taking us into the future a little bit, man.

**Scott Melker** (2:01)
That's right, I mean, let's talk about it. So I mean, first of all, we've got the headlines every single day is like Bitcoin gains 80K, Bitcoin loses 80K, Bitcoin's near 80K, Bitcoin smells 80K. So apparently Bitcoin has lost 80K. I haven't even checked the price today. Yeah, 79, but coming into Jackson Hole, I know you guys are probably looking at this. My opinion, as you probably heard sarcastically in the beginning is that Warsh won't say much, or he'll say as little as humanly possible. Well, there seems to be a sentiment that today would actually be pretty meaningful for markets.
Either one of you can jump in. Go ahead, Sant, do you want to take that?

**Mario Nawfal** (2:39)
Yeah, I think it's important to put the context here because you've had a record earning season. Basically, 86% of the companies in the S&P beat earnings estimates, and then they beat it by 11%. So that's monumental, and I think we're coming into earnings seasons thinking, gosh, maybe the AI trade is overblown, it's too hot. So we're, NVIDIA obviously reporting earnings this week. So that's the context that we're, you know, that I think is going to be part of the discussion in Jackson Hole, and obviously that bodes really well for crypto.
So, I don't know, for me, I felt for a while that NVIDIA's earnings are far more important than what happens in Jackson Hole. To me, that's the thing that if you're putting on risk in your portfolio, that's the most important thing. What is CAPEX guidance and what is NVIDIA reported? Because if those two things fall apart, then it doesn't matter what everything else happens in markets and the economy, in my opinion.

**Ran Neuner** (3:34)
Yeah, I kind of agree with Santiago. I mean, I think, Santi, you said this several months back. You said NVIDIA earnings are more important than what the Fed does. And I think that still holds true today. Actually, I think it's more important than ever, right? The CAPEX is driving, the AI trade is driving everything. And by the way, Scott, I think that's why we should talk. You said we're above 80K, we're below 80K, we're above 80K, we're below 80K. But that's like a five or six day phenomenon here. We should get like, I think this is a...
It is very interesting to see crypto break out of whatever. I think it's a pretty confirmed year plus long bear market here. And I think the big question, at least on my mind, is there's two sides of the industry. There's one that says, look, this was the biggest short squeeze in crypto history. It was a $2.7 billion short squeeze. This was just a short squeeze and prices come right back down and find the trough again. And then there's another side that says, this is the beginning of a bear market, or excuse me, beginning of a bull market. And I think Santi and I might be on different sides of that coin.