The Economic Data Business Leaders Should Be Watching

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When you're advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at accenture.com/spotify.
So good, so good, so good.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:33)
New markdowns up to 70 percent off are at Nordstrom Rack Stores now.
Stock up and stay big on shoes, tops, dresses, accessories, and more must haves for summer. Join the Nordy Club to unlock exclusive discounts, shop new arrivals first, and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack.

**Martha Gimbel** (0:57)
It's a confusing time for anyone trying to make sense of the economy. One day tariffs are on, then they're off again. Spending cuts are announced, then reversed. It's hard to keep track. And when things move this fast, it's tough to know what's really happening and what that means for your business. I'm Martha Gimbel, Executive Director of the Budget Lab at Yale. In a recent HBR article, my co-author Ernie Chudesky and I break down how to make sense of this uncertainty and what signals business leaders should really be watching. Right now, what economists call the hard data measures of actual economic activity. Have largely held steady, but some measures are starting to show signs of weakness. We can see that in four key areas. First, uncertainty is clearly rising. Businesses don't know what policy environment they're operating in, and that's making them cautious. Second, despite all the noise, government spending hasn't actually fallen. It's running slightly ahead of where it was last year, thanks in part to inflation. Third, the labor market remains stable. We're not seeing a clear big spike in unemployment claims right now. But just because things are steady today, doesn't mean they'll stay that way. Finally, shipments are starting to dramatically decline, and we expect those impacts to be felt in coming weeks by businesses and consumers. If you want to stay ahead, here's the data you should continue to keep an eye on. If overall government spending slows down, that could signal a broader pullback in the economy. A drop here could be an early sign that private sector hiring is starting to cool off.
Still one of the fastest indicators of labor market stress.
Things like job postings, credit card spending, and retirement withdrawals can offer quick, if imperfect, signals of economic activity. Also very important for tracking global trade flows. The news cycle is noisy and it's not slowing down. But by focusing on the right data, you can make smarter, steadier decisions for your business. To learn more, you can read the full article from me and Ernie Tedeschi at hbr.org.

**SPEAKER_4** (2:43)
Your package says delivered. But delivered where exactly? The hallway? The lobby? Your neighbor's apartment? Instead of playing detective with your deliveries, get a mailbox at the UPS Store.
We'll sign for your packages, text you when they arrive, and keep your deliveries low-key, under locking key. Get three months free mailbox services with a new annual agreement at the UPS Store. For full details and to get your coupon, visit theupsstore.com/offer.