The climate crisis: What the data really say | Cooked? Ep 1

Nick Petrić Howe (0:00)

I'm going to be honest with you, I worry a lot.

I worry about all sorts of things. Money, friends, family, if my voice sounds weird as you're listening to it. But there's one thing I've been worried about since I was a teenager in the early 2000s, the climate. The world's going to hell in a handcart. It is a wake up call.

SPEAKER_2 (0:26)

It's the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, in my opinion.

SPEAKER_3 (0:31)

So how do we leave this pathway to disaster?

Nick Petrić Howe (0:36)

Those anxieties have only gotten worse. In recent years, it has felt to me like climate action has stalled. In 2024, the world passed the 1.5 degrees threshold set in Paris for the first time. Shortly thereafter, Donald Trump returned to the White House, and on the first day of his presidency, set about reversing climate policies of the previous administration vowing to promote fossil fuels.

In Europe, right-wing politicians have taken aim at climate goals, with the EU weakening previously ambitious environmental policy. All while it's getting hotter and hotter. In May, there were record-breaking temperatures in my home of the UK, then in June, those records were broken again. Twice in the same week, in fact. With temperatures in some places across the continent more than 10 degrees hotter than they were between 1991 and 2020 That was the story all over Europe. Without climate change, it's extremely unlikely Europeans would have had to endure these heatwaves. And globally, scientists of all stripes have expressed doubts that any government has done enough to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

So, it feels like we're failing on climate. Heck, I can even look outside my window and see evidence for that. But what's weird is that even as climate change is affecting me more, I find it harder to engage with. As things get worse, I'm having trouble staying optimistic that we, you, me and everyone can do anything about it. And that's an odd position to be in as a science journalist. Climate change is one of the biggest stories of our time. Every week we pick our stories to cover on the podcast. And I always want to report the latest climate science. And I do, but I find it hard. Sometimes it just feels like more bad news at a time where our audience and I could do with less. I feel hopeless.

Is that actually right? Am I justified in that feeling? As the one thing I know about science is often the truth is a bit more complicated than we think.

So while the narrative can feel overwhelmingly negative, is that really what the data says?

To try and shake myself out of this climate funk, I've been talking to some of the scientists and campaigners on the front lines of climate research. And what I found was a story of tipping points.

Niklas Höhne (3:15)

That has the potential to move this energy transition over the edge.

Nick Petrić Howe (3:21)

Unpredictability.

Ketan Joshi (3:22)

I don't think we've had this level of uncertainty about a technological shift before.

Nick Petrić Howe (3:26)

Societal change.

SPEAKER_3 (3:28)

I think there's this positive feedback loop by which all of our individual level actions can lead to bigger collective actions.

Nick Petrić Howe (3:35)

And snowballing effects.

Niklas Höhne (3:37)

The system is changing at exponential speed.

Nick Petrić Howe (3:40)

This is Cooked, a three part mini series for Nature, where I try and find out whether we are, well, cooked. Is it game over for climate? Or are there reasons for hope?

I'm your host, Nick Petrić Howe. And in this first episode, I decided to start with the data. And I had a good idea of who might be able to help me with that.

Hannah Ritchie (4:04)

I mean, as a data scientist, I'm biased. And I would say, look at the data to understand for these big problems, where they're coming from, why they're happening, and importantly, what we can do to solve them.

Nick Petrić Howe (4:27)

I don't think it's just me that feels like we've failed on climate. There's certainly a narrative out there that it's too late. But not that long ago, a book came out that seemed to fly against this. As it stated, backed up with oodles of data, that we're really not at the end of the world.

So I knew I wanted to speak to its author, Hannah Ritchie.

Hannah Ritchie (4:49)

What I wanted to do in that book was, I think, twofold.

Nick Petrić Howe (4:52)

That's Hannah, the author of Not at the End of the World, and a data scientist at Our World in Data and the University of Oxford.