The 2028 Primary Has Begun (with Ezra Klein)

Jon Favreau (0:09)

The 2028 Democratic Primary has begun. I know, there's still counting votes from the last election. But the people who were thinking about running for president are already hiring staff, making calls and visiting early states. If history is any guide, we'll probably get the first few announcements right after the holidays. Candidates will then have about a year to impress us before the first votes cast in South Carolina. It's hard to overstate the importance of the decision we're about to make. It's also hard to overstate how unbelievably stupid primaries can get. The last time we did this, weeks of our lives were consumed with questions of great national consequence, like should the Democratic nominee be allowed to stand on tables? Is holding a fundraiser in a wine cave disqualifying? What about allegedly using the phrase horse-faced lesbian several decades ago? What was Joe Biden's position on busing in the 1970s? And how much should Kamala Harris charge for the t-shirt that memorialized their dispute? Then came approximately 500 debates about Medicare for all, Medicare for all who want it, Medicare for all who can afford it, and Medicare whether you want it or not. The eventual winner went on to the White House and delivered Medicare for the same people. I wish I could tell you 2028 will be different, but some of the nastier primaries of 2026 don't exactly inspire confidence. And the internet hasn't exactly become a more thoughtful place to work through our differences. But I do think the Democrats who run this time have a north star to focus their debate. We've now had three elections in a row where voters have said that life is too expensive and they want someone to do something about it. This time, Republicans got the message in the form of a landslide defeat. And it's not just the Iran war or tariffs or the inflation we've been dealing with since the pandemic. Costs have been rising for decades. Rent keeps going up, home prices keep rising, health care is too expensive, child care, college. People are borrowing a fortune for their degree, then wondering whether AI will take the job that's supposed to help them pay it off. Democrats can't just respond to this reality by having the same arguments over the same recycled ideas. Moderates propose a bunch of tax credits that progressives say are too small to make a difference. Progressives propose big new programs that moderates say are too expensive and will never pass. We know how this movie ends. Politicians campaigning on accomplishments voters haven't felt, or making excuses for promises they didn't keep, which only makes voters angrier, more cynical, and more likely to throw them out of office again. I think 2028 has to be the election where Democrats break this cycle. But that means learning from the last few times we had power. One of the reasons Obamacare didn't become popular until years after it passed is because most of the benefits didn't go into effect until years after it passed. Biden and the Democratic Congress passed an inflation reduction act that invested hundreds of billions in clean energy and lowered drug costs for seniors but did very little for people struggling with high inflation. Even the monthly payments to families with kids stopped a year before the 2022 midterms. This time around, I want to hear more than plans. I don't need another debate about why someone else's slightly different plan makes them a bad or stupid person. I want to hear candidates debate who has the best strategy to turn those plans into changes that people can see and feel in their own lives, ideally before the 2030 midterms. If a Democrat wins in 2028, they could take office with some of the biggest congressional majorities in decades. Then they'll have two years before voters get a chance to take those majorities away as they've done so many times in the past. So what comes first?

Not your 27 equally urgent priorities, your first one, maybe your second and third.

What are you willing to put off so you can get those done? With the limited time you have, the courts you have, and a coalition that runs from California to South Carolina with Kansas and Mississippi in between, how will you get your agenda through? And how will you make sure people don't need a second democratic term just to feel the difference? Speed has to be part of what we mean by ambition. Help has to arrive quickly enough to matter and last long enough for people to count on it. If you're going to build millions of homes, great. What happens to the renter while they're being built? If you're taking on powerful corporations, which bills come down and when? How much can you actually pay for by taxing only the rich? If you're promising everyone health insurance, do you make sure they can find a doctor who's actually taking new patients too?