Texas: "Is This The Year?" artwork

Texas: "Is This The Year?"

Offline with Jon Favreau

August 22, 2026

Every election cycle the question inevitably comes up - will Texas flip? But the biggest story in Texas isn't whether the state will turn blue. It's how the people who live there are redefining what Texas politics looks like.
Speakers: Jon Favreau, Erin Haines, Jennifer Palmieri, Gina Hinojosa, James Talarico, Ken Paxton, Mitch Landrieu, Ali Stiles, Benny Melendez, Mario Guerrero, Taylor Rehmet, Mandy McClure, Erin Montgomery

Topics: Society & Culture, News

**Jon Favreau** (0:00)
Hey, everyone. This week, in lieu of our regular Offline episode, I wanted to share a special limited series we just launched here at Crooked that I think you'll love about what it'll take for Democrats to win again in the South. It's called Long Play, and it's hosted by our pal, Jennifer Palmieri, our former White House colleague and the Emmy nominated host of Showtime's The Circus.
Jen's also joined by award-winning journalist, Erin Haines, and former New Orleans mayor, Mitch Landrieu.
Jen, Errin, and Mitch have spent months traveling across the South, from Georgia to North and South Carolina, to Tennessee, to Texas, where they've talked to voters, politicians, strategists, and organizers. In the episode you're about to hear, the crew travels to Texas to discover what it'll take to finally turn Texas blue. They talked to voters in Tarrant County, home of Fort Worth and one of the most important counties in 2026, as well as Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Gina Hinojosa, and Senate nominee, James Talarico. It's an excellent episode and an incredible series. Take a listen to the show right here, and if you like it, watch or listen to the full series wherever you get this podcast. We'll post links to subscribe in the show notes. All right. Here's Longplay.

**Erin Haines** (1:13)
Welcome to Texas, the second stop on our six-state road trip through the South.
I'm Erin Haynes, and I'm here in Laredo with my co-hosts, Mitch Landrieu and Jennifer Palmieri. Meeting up at another fabulous spot for local music, Jardin y Contreras.

**Jennifer Palmieri** (1:28)
I'm going to start talking about Laredo.

**Erin Haines** (1:29)
Laredo is great.

**Jennifer Palmieri** (1:30)
Isn't it great?

**Erin Haines** (1:31)
Yes. It is so lovely.

**Gina Hinojosa** (1:33)
Beautiful town square.

**Jennifer Palmieri** (1:34)
Town square, very cool history of how this was the Republic of Rio Grande.
For the second week in a row, we were at a music venue. It's got rock music, Tejana music, like a lot of local acts. Continuing on the Longplay theme, friends.

**Erin Haines** (1:48)
What time do you perform it?

**Jennifer Palmieri** (1:49)
Oh, God.

**Erin Haines** (1:52)
But that's not all we're here to see.

**SPEAKER_7** (1:55)
Can we all say we are ready to take back Texas?

**James Talarico** (2:02)
Hey, Laredo.

**Ken Paxton** (2:03)
It's good to see y'all.

**James Talarico** (2:05)
We have traveled to every corner of this state. And I can't tell you the number of people who've come up to me at the end of these events and whispered, I'm not a Democrat, like they're in the witness protection program.

**Erin Haines** (2:19)
That's Democratic state rep James Talarico speaking at a rally here. Talarico is the latest in a long line of Democratic Senate hopefuls looking to make Texas into a true swing state.

**James Talarico** (2:31)
I can't tell you the number of young people who've showed up at our events saying it's the first political event they've ever attended. That is how we changed the politics of this state. We are uniting Texans onto one team to take on this broken, corrupt political system.

**Erin Haines** (2:57)
This last election cycle, Texas swung the other way with Republicans gaining ground among Latino voters, especially along the border in places like this, turning even Democratic areas like Laredo red. But two years later, our voters happy with their choice.
This is Long Play, Winning the South, Episode 2, Texas.

**Mitch Landrieu** (3:23)
Every state's got its own ethos. It's got its own calling card. Texas is like, don't mess with Texas.

**Erin Haines** (3:29)
Yeah.

**Jennifer Palmieri** (3:29)
I mean, it's the only state in the country that was once its own country.

**Erin Haines** (3:32)
Absolutely.

**Jennifer Palmieri** (3:33)
You just know that that history just still rings throughout this state. It is just like so independent. It's huge.

**Mitch Landrieu** (3:40)
It's big and it's a really diverse state. Texas is now a majority minority state.
People always think that demography is going to be a predictor. I'm here to tell you demography is not destiny.

**Erin Haines** (3:51)
Right.

**Jennifer Palmieri** (3:51)
It's basically been 30 years since Democrats have won here statewide.

**Erin Haines** (3:55)
It feels like every cycle, the question is always, why isn't Texas more competitive?
Trump's support among black men in Texas went from 19% in 2020 to 34% in 2024 And I mean, Latinos, he did even better, 38% in 2020 And in 2024, that number was 53%.

**Jennifer Palmieri** (4:14)
This is a huge state and it is a very conservative state. It's a very religious state. It's very hard for Democrats to win Texas.

**Erin Haines** (4:24)
Culture wars issues are already kind of starting to play out here in a way that we've seen in some places in the rest of the country. But immigration in particular is front and center in this state.

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