Super El Niño Threatens World Economy & Trump Wants Early Access to AI

**SPEAKER_1** (0:01)
AI is unchartered territory, and many leaders are trying to navigate through without a guide to help them. That's why Morning Brew created the Intelligence Shift, a new podcast with PWC. It's all about how AI is fundamentally changing different industries. Host Dan Priest is joined by a top tier roster of industry leaders who share real stories and real lessons learned. Get guidance from industry experts. Listen to the Intelligence Shift wherever you get your podcasts.

**Neal Freyman** (0:29)
Good Morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.

**Toby Howell** (0:32)
And I'm Toby Howell.

**Neal Freyman** (0:33)
Today, why Steph Curry signed with a Chinese apparel company.

**Toby Howell** (0:37)
Then El Nino is likely coming this year, and it's likely going to be a super one. It's Wednesday, June 3rd. Let's ride.

**Neal Freyman** (0:48)
Good morning. Well, this is a bit strange because today is the last you'll be hearing from me and Toby for the remainder of the week. Because we are headed out of town to Toby's bachelor party tomorrow. That's right. Your second favorite MBD host is getting married soon, but you'll be in great hands for Thursdays and Fridays shows, while me, Toby, the rest of his friends, wait, I'm realizing I don't even know what we're doing.
What should I pass?

**Toby Howell** (1:13)
All right. I'll give you the lay of the land here. My brother, who is my best man, is calling it the Tobin Turney government name right there. By the way, essentially, it's a decathlon of the mind, body, and soul with way more than 10 events. We'll partner up and play a series of games that include, but it's not limited to, a team beer mile, wiffle ball, home run derby, punt pass and kick, pickleball, three-point contest, hot dog eating contest, egg toss, paper airplane replay, a bake-off, and of course, taking part of the SAT. So the idea is to give people a varying athletic and academic abilities the chance to compete. So in terms of what to pack, just bring athletic clothes, Neal.
And now a word from our sponsor, Sage. Neal, I'm putting together a business grocery list. I need time, Sage, and a little elbow grease.

**Neal Freyman** (1:59)
Is this a work thing or are you making a chicken?

**Toby Howell** (2:02)
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**Neal Freyman** (2:15)
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**Toby Howell** (2:26)
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**Neal Freyman** (2:34)
To learn more, head to sage.com/morningbrew. That's sage.com/morningbrew.

**Toby Howell** (2:40)
Time to dust off your middle school science textbooks because El Nino is almost certainly coming back this year. The United Nations Weather Agency announced yesterday that there's an 80% chance El Nino forms before September, mirroring other forecasts. It's likely gonna be an intense one too. According to the US Climate Prediction Center, there's a two-thirds chance it evolves into an extra strong version of the naturally occurring event known colloquially as Super El Nino. You've no doubt heard of El Nino before, but what exactly is it and why should you care? Think of it as a really loud, auto-tuned karaoke microphone for the climate. It amplifies and warps weather patterns across the globe. The defining characteristic is a warming of the Pacific Ocean, which disrupts fishing off the coast of South America and leads to wetter, stormier weather across the Southern US in South America and drier, warmer weather in the PNW, Australia and Southeast Asia. And when you get a Super El Nino, everything is amplified further. UN Secretary General Antonio Gutierrez described it as pouring fuel on the fire of a warming world. And that's exactly where the danger lies. The last El Nino in 2024 led to record global temperatures. If this version masses or exceeds that, it would lead to another year of record heat stretching into 2027
Neal, El Nino is naturally occurring, but the human side of the story is how it impacts agriculture, food supplies and the global economy. Floods, droughts, wildfires and storms could stretch already strained supply chains.

**Neal Freyman** (4:08)
There's a pretty robust literature on the economic impacts of El Nino. And the impacts are just huge. Let's go back to 1982, 1983 That El Nino led to a $4.1 trillion loss in global income. Fast forward to 1997, 1998 That El Nino led to $5.7 trillion in lost GDP around the world. And the thing to know is that's just not one year after that particular El Nino. That's a five year span showing how these this intense weather patterns wreaks havoc on a lot of infrastructure that takes time to rebuild. So the economic impacts add up over time. This is a five year span that we just had just about 30 years ago just led to almost $6 trillion in global losses.