Strive CEO Says Bitcoin "Fastest Horse" in Crypto Race, Rate Hikes Not Bearish

Unknown Host (0:00)

But let's discuss this, because I do want to pick up where we left off there with the price of Bitcoin. Joining me to discuss the latest on that and the crypto treasury model is Matt Cole, who's the CEO of Strive. Matt, thank you so much for joining us this afternoon. Just talk to us about what's going on with prices. I mean, is the crypto winter over?

Matt Cole (0:23)

Yeah, when it comes to Bitcoin, I think it's definitely the end of the winter. But as we know, after winter comes spring, and I think that's accurately where we are in the markets, where you're starting to see the sunshine, I do think that it is overwhelmingly likely that the bottom for Bitcoin is in. But make no mistake about it, we're not at all-time highs yet. And so I think it will still be a little bit choppy as we move to new all-time highs and beyond. But I think over the course of the next few years, I think it's never been more exciting times for Bitcoin.

We believe by 2030, we're going to see Bitcoin in the realm of $400,000 to $500,000 plus, which would represent approximately a 50% return on average over the next three years. And so we're very excited about where Bitcoin goes from here.

Unknown Host (1:10)

Yeah, I'm glad you said that because I was struggling to do the math. Actually, that's just me personally, because I did see you had the 50% CAGA call there with respect to your base case. So, what would change that thesis then, Matt?

Matt Cole (1:26)

Yeah, it's hard to see what would change our base case to not be in the 30% to 70% range for the next three years. And it's driven primarily by expectations for a weaker dollar over that time.

And the weaker dollar call is actually driven by the debt levels of the United States. And so the United States has two decisions right now, the Fed and the Treasury. They can either over the course of the next three years, let long-term interest rates rise substantially more from here.

Or you can see what Scott Bessent has been signaling that he's going to do, which is to start to support more and more long-term rates. So right now, he is buying back about $6 billion of Treasuries per new issue in the auction markets and has the full, what they call the TGA behind him, which is almost a trillion dollars. And so this would not be QE. But my expectation, because he said, I am the house. And so when the Treasury, the head of the Treasury says, I'm the house, I tend to believe that he will be. And so I think that he will ultimately constrain long-end rates from moving higher. And if he does that, the release value will be the dollar. And the dollar has been one of the most consistent predictors of Bitcoin bull markets. And so we think the dollar is going to go substantially lower from here. And scarce assets, so primarily Bitcoin, things like gold, silver will do really well. It could filter into other cryptos, but our view is that Bitcoin is digital gold and that's our strict focus.

Unknown Host (2:53)

Right, yes, I am the house. That was a pretty bold statement. I was just talking to somebody about that this morning. It's certainly been an interesting few weeks, what the Treasury Secretary has been up to. So if you could just explain and confirm that for our viewers, week a dollar, obviously growing pressure to rein in the long end of the curve, positive for Bitcoin.

Matt Cole (3:14)

Very positive for Bitcoin. So you could think about Bitcoin, in a sense, partially as a debasement trade. So when the currency is being debased, when the dollar is being debased, Bitcoin tends to do really well. And so the Treasury, when Scott Bissett said he's the house, I've been a little bit critical of that he hasn't done enough yet. And I think the markets are ultimately going to pressure him until he deploys effectively the full trillion dollars at his disposal to deploy to support long end rates. And so that's why I think this will play out over the course of the next couple of years. And I think it's going to continually test him with higher interest rates over time until he actually supports the long term rates with size. And so that's where I say ultimately he is the house, the Treasury is the house, the Fed is the house, but they're only the house when they want to be. And so right now I think it's more of a signaling marketing exercise. And I think there's a lot of reasons why he probably has to start too small versus where he ultimately goes.