Stocks Extend Records Amid Govt. Shutdown, AI Boom vs. Bubble, Goldman Sachs CEO's Market Warning 10/03/25

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Jim Cramer (1:01)

It's Jim Cramer here. You're listening to the opening bell of CNBC Squawk on the Street. Don't miss a minute of the action.

Carl Quintanilla (1:08)

Good Friday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with Jim Cramer at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Favorize the morning off. Future steady as we come off the 30th all-time high of the year. Stocks shrug off for now. The government shutdown, which leaves us without a jobs number today, and looks to continue into the weekend. Our roadmap begins with this AI-fueled rally, sending stocks to new highs. But Goldman's David Solomon has a warning about this rally. Apple with a rare downgrade today on concerns about excessive expectations for the iPhone. And as the shutdown enters day three, the president looking to bail out farmers and the administration freezing more infrastructure projects, this time in Chicago. Let's begin with the markets, though, on a day which would have been jobs Friday. If not for the shutdown, there are some alternative measures. Jim Goolsbee this morning with the Chicago Fed's new tracker says we probably would have wound up around four, three unemployment.

Jim Cramer (2:00)

Right. I know that we can use the Thursdays and the Thursdays said we're OK. Look, I think that without the of some sort of big roll number, the president is is the missing factor here. So I think that he can't say what he would have said if there was a lower employment. Look, I've spent most of the last two days trying to figure out AI and employment. And I do that because even when I look at David Solomon's comments, he did say he didn't directly relate it to AI. But we're starting to see it. We're starting to see companies say, you know what, after the Walmart call that you gave, that there are people who are saying, wow, not, what do we do? But we're doing it. And that's so it's no longer a work in progress. People are not hiring. And I think that that's really the call that we have to focus on.

Carl Quintanilla (2:55)

We did mention yesterday some of the hiring intentions out of Challenger for September, worst September in over a decade. Greg Ipp's got a great piece in the journal today looking at why GDP and employment are separating so dramatically. They don't always go together, but it's rare they're this far apart.

Jim Cramer (3:13)

Well, I just think that there's this is very different. This is the fourth industrial revolution that that Jensen Wong keeps talking about, which he says at the beginning, you have people, you'll have people who are let go. But individuals have basically an assistant and the assistant improves their productivity. So in the end, you will need more workers because if you can improve productivity, then each worker is worth even more. I would say an outfit that's hurting would say, no, we're not going to do that.

If each person is doing even more, we can lay off more people. So I think right now we're in the layoff stage. And I don't think that these numbers capture it because it's just so new. And I really think that it's really time to give this whole labor issue to automatic data and to paychecks. We need them. And those are the ones that we should be just relying on. I know automatic data sometimes seems off on Thursday versus the labor. But I now feel when I read the BLS problems, which is, listen, we're not getting a response. Maybe we have to go to the people who actually do payroll processing. That's something, by the way, paychecks is very good at.