SpaceX Sinks, AI’s Bad Behavior, 3 Rate Hikes this year? 8/5/26

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**Kelly Evans** (1:03)
Thank you very much, Scott. This four-day rally is finally running out of some steam. I'm Kelly Evans, and welcome to The Exchange. The NASDAQ and S&P turning negative, although the S&P is back in positive territory slightly here. The Dow is holding on to a 400-plus point gain held by Amgen today. That said, a big dip lower by Google shares in the past hour is weighing on the averages as the company makes some C-suite shuffles in its AI division. And SpaceX shares are lower, though off the worst levels. AI costs overshadowing its revenue jump. It's also sending the telecom names lower and giving Nvidia a boost. We'll have more on all of that in a moment. And two prominent voices, one of them a Fed official telling CNBC that three raid hikes are not out of the question this year. That said, we had a big miss on ADP payrolls today, ahead of the July jobs report due out on Friday. But let's begin by taking a step back here. The NASDAQ 100 is coming off a four-day win streak that added $3.5 trillion in market cap. Microsoft, a big part of that, it has soared 25% in just four sessions. And our first guest today just added it to his value fund back in June. Chris Grisanti is the chief market strategist at MAI Capital Management. It's great to have you. It's great to see you again. You too, Kelly. I was going to say that you called it, but I'm not sure even you might have thought, okay, 25% in four sessions. That said, walk us through it. Microsoft, all of these stocks here, what do you make of it?

**Chris Grisanti** (2:30)
So I think we actually learned quite a lot over the last two weeks from the earnings from a lot of different companies.
But what I'm asking myself in AI land is, who's got a moat and who doesn't? But clearly to me, what's happening is I think the world's largest, most expensive moat is being created by the big three, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, because nobody can compete with the kind of spending they're doing. They don't have the money, they don't have the balance sheets. So investors are starting to catch on. And when Amazon or Google say, we're actually going to spend even more money, that's not bad news. That's good news for them and for investors. Because what's happening is if, look, if you had Google's cloud business growing at 82% a year and it was capacity constrained and it had good margins, you would beg, borrow and steal to invest more in that business. And that's what they're doing.

**Kelly Evans** (3:19)
What about Meta though? I mean, it wants to be in the group.

**Chris Grisanti** (3:23)
Right. So in the short term, I think Meta is in a good situation. If you compute is king right now. So if you have the compute and they have some compute and they're spending money to get it, I don't think long term they have nearly as viable an AI strategy as the other big three. So I would push my money the other way.

**Kelly Evans** (3:37)
What about Oracle? It also wants to be in the group.

**Chris Grisanti** (3:40)
So not as good a balance sheet.
And so as in terms of the compute, they're getting it in terms of the stock price, which as you know, peaked a year ago and is way down since then. Again, I think there are better options there.

**Kelly Evans** (3:53)
What about SpaceX?

**Chris Grisanti** (3:54)
They also want to have it.

**Silvio Scaramuzzi** (3:55)
We'll see.

**Chris Grisanti** (3:57)
SpaceX is a wonderful company and a terrible price. That's what us value guys think.
So I would stay away, and I have a strong suspicion. Look, the funny thing about SpaceX is 10 times more stock is about to come out over the next six months as came out at the IPO. So I think we'll get a better chance there.