SOTS 2nd Hour: Trading Nvidia's GTC Conference, Fresh Fed Drama, & Paris Trade Talks 3/16/26

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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SPEAKER_2 (0:28)

Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter?

SPEAKER_5 (0:31)

Right? And the best part? They accept Discover.

SPEAKER_2 (0:33)

Accept Discover?

SPEAKER_6 (0:35)

In a little place like this?

SPEAKER_2 (0:36)

I don't think so, Jennifer.

Steve Leesman (0:38)

Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_5 (0:39)

Discover is accepted where I like to shop.

Pippa Stevens (0:41)

Come on, baby. Get with the times.

SPEAKER_2 (0:43)

Right.

Sara Eisen (0:44)

So we shouldn't get the parachute pants?

SPEAKER_5 (0:47)

These are making a comeback.

SPEAKER_11 (0:50)

I think.

SPEAKER_5 (0:51)

Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen Report.

Sara Eisen (1:03)

Good Monday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber back at Post9 at the New York Stock Exchange. Coming up this hour, the latest on the Iran War and the impact on oil and the global markets. By the way, session highs right now for the S&P. We're joined by Atlantic Council CEO, Fred Kemp, warning about the possibility of a global recession. Plus, Nvidia kicking off its annual GTC conference today in California. We'll talk about what's expected as chip stocks get a bid in early trading here. And Meta is higher this morning after reports saying major layoffs could be on the way. We'll talk to an analyst about what's behind that move.

Carl Quintanilla (1:39)

Let's get some housing data breaking this morning. Diana Olick's got that for us. Hey, Diana.

Diana Olick (1:45)

Good morning, Carl. Homebuilders sentiment in March rose 1.28 and February's reading was revised 1 higher. So it's a slight beat. Now the street was looking for 37, but anything on the NAHB survey below 50 is considered negative. The index stood at 39 one year ago. Now this reading was taken this month as mortgage rates moved higher due to the war in Iran and fears over oil and inflation. Of the index's three components, current sales conditions rose 1 to 42, buyer traffic rose 3 to 25, and future sales expectations rose 2 to 49 The NAHB noted many buyers are sitting on the fence waiting for lower mortgage rates and the builders are still facing elevated land, labor and construction costs. Nearly two-thirds report they continue to offer sales incentives in a bid to firm up the market. 37% of builders cut prices in March up slightly from 36% in February. Sara?

Sara Eisen (2:42)

Okay, a little better sentiment though. Thank you very much, Diana Olek. Guys, it's a big week for data and macro. We've got a big Fed meeting in the middle of the week. The FOMC releases not just a decision on interest rates but the dots. We get the projections for how many rates they think are going to happen, which is interesting because the market has really changed its view on this. Now, only expecting maybe one cut this year. We'll also get the PPI wholesale inflation on Wednesday, and then of course jobless claims highly in focus every week on Thursday. I just want to show you what's happened with the two key inputs for the Fed since the last meeting. They've got a dual mandate, which is to keep inflation steady and to keep jobs basically on employment. So let's start with inflation. The PCE is their preferred measure, and we just got the January reading. It's delayed because of quirks with the data because of the shutdown. So in March, we get the January reading. Where is it? It's 2.8. But what you can see, and we did a short-term chart to show you just in the last year, it's elevated and it's coming in on the hotter side. I mean, the January report was a little bit better than expected on the headline number, but core was firmer. And as you can see, the Fed's probably going to want more proof that the trend is going down or at least stabilizing again, especially ahead of the storm of higher gas prices, which we expect. That doesn't, it's not factored in here, but we are seeing a little bit firmer inflation. Now, here's where it gets a little complicated. By the way, you can see CPI too. Just, you know, they track PCE, but CPI as well, just to show you. There's the gap in the government shutdown. It's elevated, right?