SOTS 2nd Hour: Today's Tariff Turns (Impact for Stocks, Trade Deals, & Co. Refunds), Novo's Weight-losses, & Netflix vs. Trump 2/23/26

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Carl Quintanilla (0:23)

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Sara Eisen (1:00)

Good Monday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street from the blizzard in New York City. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber. We are live at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Coming up on today's show, we've got a great lineup to break down the latest on tariffs as Wall Street and the world weigh the impact of the Supreme Court decision and the president's new plans, including Liz Ann Sonders from Charles Schwab, Eurasia groups, Ian Bremmer and Rushir Sharma from Rockefeller International. Plus, we'll talk to Flexport CEO Ryan Peterson about when and how those tariff refunds for importers could be processed. Also ahead this hour, details on a big pullback for weight loss drug maker Novo Nordisk and the president's latest comment on Netflix board member Susan Rice.

Carl Quintanilla (1:42)

First, though, some factory orders to start us off this week. Let's get to Rick Centelli. Hi, Rick.

Rick Santelli (1:47)

Good morning, Carl. Indeed, these are our first look at December factory orders. Headline number expected to be down about three quarters of one percent. Comes in exactly as expected, down 7.10. So it will be the weakest since OCK of last year. And that follows up 2.7, yet unrevised. That was the best since May. So we went best since May to the weakest in October. And if we strip out transportation, it becomes a positive number, which gives us some clues as to where the weakness was. Up 4.0, better than expected. And that follows a slightly downgraded 2.0. That becomes 1.0. That 4.0, best since July of last year. Now, we're going to go to December final reads on durable goods. These are mid-month numbers being changed. The minus 1.4 actually remains minus 1.4, weakest since October. And that's the tombstone for 2025 These are all the final reads. And if you strip out transportation, it improves 1.1 from up 9.10s mid-month to 1 full percent. 1 full percent would be the best read going all the way back to Sep of 2024 Now, if we switch gears a bit here and we look at new orders, non-defense, ex-air, proxy for capital spending comes in a strong 8.10s. Mid-month read was 0.6. That would equal where we were in November to find a higher number. You're in the Sep of 25 Switch gears to shipments, also a 1.10th improvement. Mid-month read, well, it was 0.9. It now becomes 1%.

1% will be the strongest read since Sep of last year, 2025 So all in all, these are pretty good numbers. The negative numbers, of course, disappear when you remove the transportation aspects. And we do see some buying pressure coming in. 405 out of 10, that's down four basis points. Keep an eye on the psychological 4%. Last week, we had an intraday low of 4.01%.

Sara, back to you.

Sara Eisen (3:46)

Okay, thank you, Rick Santelli. I'm focused on trade and how we calculate what the new Supreme Court ruling means for tariff rates and the economy and jobs of inflation. How much of a game changer is it? Well, first of all, President Trump, as we heard from Secretary Besson over the weekend on some of the shows and the Trade Ambassador, Jameson Greer, remains defiant in his use of tariffs. He says this morning at 7 a.m. on True Social, the Supreme Court will be using lower case letters for a while based on complete lack of respect of the United States accidentally and unwittingly gave me as president of the United States far more powers and strength than I had prior to their ridiculous, dumb and very internationally divisive ruling. The court has also approved other tariffs, he says, for example, of which there are many and they can all be used in a much more powerful and obnoxious way with legal certainty than the tariffs initially used. We did get a taste of that as the president immediately moved to implement 10% and then 15% over the weekend tariffs using the 122 clause. So how do we calculate what all this means? Well, good thing we have the Yale Budget Lab because they do some real time work here on this. So basically before the IEPA ruling, the Supreme Court ruling was shot down, the effective tariff rate, kind of looking at everything, was about 16% here. Now with the substitution of the 122, 15% tariffs, that's 13.7%.