SOTS 2nd Hour: The Trump Trade, Bitcoin Bedlam, Big Box Office Weekend 11/22/24

Carl Quintanilla (0:05)

Good Friday morning, welcome to another hour of Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with Morgan Brennan here at Post9, along with David Faber at the New York Stock Exchange. Sarah Isens on assignment. Coming off the best day for the Dow since November 6th, and adding a little bit more. Dow's up almost 300 points, 5966 S&P, got the best PMIs since 2022, and that has lifted the front end of the curve, although the 10-year remains a little suppressed.

Morgan Brennan (0:29)

Well, we're 30 minutes into the trading session, so here are three big movers that we're watching this Friday. Shares of Gap soaring, the retailer raising its sales outlook for the year after reporting market share growth across its brands in the third quarter. The stocks had a volatile ride this year. It's really a turnaround story. Shares are up almost 8% right now. Shares have been to it, though. Those are falling after its earnings guidance came in below street estimates. The company is delaying promotions for its desktop version of TurboTax. You can see those shares are down about 4%. And we are continuing to keep a close eye on the crypto trade. Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs again hitting $98,525.

We are getting so much closer to that $100,000 milestone. A lot of chatter, though, that maybe we're overbought here. We got more on this trade ahead in the show.

Carl Quintanilla (1:16)

Let's get some Umish with Rick Santelli. Hey, Rick.

Rick Santelli (1:20)

Yes, there's more warm data here, Carl. So we look at University of Michigan. These are November finals. So we take the mid-month reads and we toss them. So 73 was the mid-month read. That now becomes 71.8. So that gets downgraded a bit. Now, if we look at current conditions, that gets downgraded to 63.9 from 64.4. And if we continue to look at the downgrades, University of Michigan expectations, one lies ahead, moves from 78.5 mid-month to 76.9. But here's where it gets interesting. The inflation data, the one-year inflation remains the same, up 2.6%.

And up 2.6% was actually made some progress. When it was released mid-month, that was the lowest month-over-month one-year inflation, going back to December of 2020, when it was with 2.5. But the 5-10 year inflation is sticky. It moves from 3.1 to 3.2. 3.2 equals where we were in November of last year. To find a higher number, get this, you have to go all the way back to June of 08, when it was 3.4. So that's most likely going to keep some of those lighter full-month reads on the sentiment under wraps a bit. In the long end, you got it right, Carl. The long end is a little squeamish here. It's at 4.4 down 4 on the week, where the 2s at 4.35 are up 4 on the week. 2s to 10s moving 8 basis points, as you can see, on the week. Back to you, David.

David Faber (2:55)

All right, Rick. Thank you, Rick Santelli. Well, it has been a volatile week for the MAG7 names. A winning week overall, though, for stocks. Mike Santelli, of course, tracking all of the action. Let's get over to him now as we wrap up this week. Mike.

Mike Santoli (3:09)

Yeah, David. I mean, look, the MAG7, first of all, a lot of differentiation among those stocks. Clearly, you see Alphabet really on the outs. It's got lowest ever relative valuation. And then you have things like Tesla getting a real jolt from the election sentiment and all the rest. They've done what they're supposed to do in terms of delivering results, in terms of all the operating cash flows and everything else there, exceeding estimates. The issue is, and we sort of had this telegraph that earnings growth is less scarce. It's not as concentrated in these stocks. It's been broadening out. And therefore, the market performance has been broadening out. If you look since the low from early August, after we had that little pullback, the average stock in the S&P 500 or the median stock has doubled the performance of the MAG7. So clearly, this is what people had wanted to see. You're seeing a little bit more of a all-inclusive market. This week, it somewhat mirrored that. Although, I have to say, even outside the S&P 500, as we've discussed, a lot of the sort of high-energy moves are in even more speculative stuff, and it's less about delivering earnings today.

David Faber (4:16)

Yeah, and we spent a lot of time talking about that with Jim at the top of the last hour, Mike, as you put it, sort of the high-energy moves in more speculative names. I don't know if there's anything that history can show us here or what you think is causing it, but I'm certainly curious to hear your thoughts.