SOTS 2nd Hour: RBC's Market Take, a "Once-In-A-Generation" Opportunity, & Retail's Holiday Winners/Losers 12/1/25

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Sara Eisen (1:00)

Good Monday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and Mike Santoli today. We are live from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. David Faber has the week off. Today, stocks coming off of volatile November. But Rockefeller's Ruchir Sharma says there's now a generational opportunity in one specific part of the market. He'll join us to explain. Plus, as crypto takes another leg lower, RBC's Laurie Calvicina is with us to explain why Bitcoin needs to stabilize in order to calm nerves in this market. And the latest on Airbus, as shares of the aircraft maker fall on reports about quality issues on dozens of planes.

Carl Quintanilla (1:35)

Been a busy morning for some manufacturing surveys. Let's get back to Rick Santoli. Hey again, Rick.

Rick Santoli (1:41)

Yes, Carl, there's some surprises here on the ISM side of the PMIs. The manufacturing for November, these are fresh numbers. 48.2, that's definitely on the light side. That would be the lightest since July. If you look at prices paid, 58.5, higher than expected. And in this series, prices paid higher is not necessarily better. 58.5 would be the hottest prices paid going back to September of this year. And if we look at new orders, a very big disappointment here. 47.4, 47.4 weakest since July. And finally on the employment front, 44.0, another big miss.

Following a 46, 44 would be the lightest read since August. And sequentially, well, all the important numbers are sequentially lower. The only one sequentially higher is prices paid. And as I pointed out, we'd rather have that moving lower. Interest rates across the globe have some upward pressure. We see two-year hovering at 352 in the US. That's up three basis points. The 10-year after it surpassed the recent ceiling around 404, 405 on the yield perspective jumped up to 409 Hovering to 408, up six basis points. Sara, back to you.

Sara Eisen (2:56)

Okay, thank you, Rick Santoli. Mixed currents here in the economy. Weaker manufacturing has reported stronger spending from the consumer. For all the talk about how stressed the consumer is, they're coming out and they're shopping for the holiday season. I've been tracking some of these real-time indicators that we're getting from MasterCard, for instance. MasterCard Institute says that Black Friday retail sales were up 4.1% from last year. E-commerce sales, that's really where the strength is, up almost 10.5% as good as last year. Not necessarily, but it's still really strong. And if you look at some of the categories that saw growth, apparel sales, that's much needed category for growth, up 5.7% and jewelry sales up almost 3%.

Those stood out. It jives with what we got from Adobe, which showed even stronger growth. They always track the e-com sales up 9% from last year to a record almost $12 billion spent online over the holiday weekend. And guys, just because my kids were here on, if you remember, before the holiday on Friday, and they said they each wanted jerseys. So Fanatics sent in some of their data from the weekend. They had a very strong holiday shopping season. Sales on the Fanatics app were up 285% on Black Friday from last year and the highest that they've ever seen. So it's not just my kids. A lot of kids want jerseys. They had really strong performance, they said, in the NFL Lululemon collection, the NBA City Edition, Dodgers World Series champ merch, no surprise. And the NHL alternate jersey launches as well. So just some good color on one specific retailer, which saw really strong gains that I can relate to.

Carl Quintanilla (4:42)

Certainly got ratified by at least last week's action in some of these realtor names, Mike.

Mike Santoli (4:46)

Yes, they did respond to the pullback that we got, right, over the first three months of November. Definitely a growth scare. I think we rebuilt a little bit of confidence in that part of the economy with affirmation we're probably going to get a rate cut. And the industry's been so good at funneling retail activity into this handful of days. I always want to make sure the number is kind of, you look at it over a broader window, it's coincident, right? I mean, people have jobs for the most part, it's less than four and a half percent unemployment. And we're kind of growing retail sales close to nominal GDP growth. I don't think that's a bad thing, but I also don't think it's a matter of the consumer to the rescue. It's much more just sort of pushes against the idea that there's, you know, there's sort of a real stress on the consumer more broadly. Right.