SOTS 2nd Hour: Pepsico CEO, Ferrari Hits The Brakes, & AI's Workforce Impact 10/9/25

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Sara Eisen (1:08)

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber live at Post9 from the New York Stock Exchange. Today, mixed bag for Pepsico, the company topping estimates, but global volumes fell in the quarter. We'll talk to the CEO, Ramon LaGuarda, about what he's seeing from customers around the world right now. Plus, Ferrari shares racing in the wrong direction this morning as the company gives guidance to a disappointed analyst. We'll talk about the specific number that is spooking the street. But guys, the big story is still this government shutdown and the fact that the Fed is now flying blind into its October meeting because we're not getting the official data releases. It's an especially uncertain time for them. We got the minutes yesterday from the last Fed meeting, the notes from the last Fed meeting. And while it seems like most of the members want to keep cutting, there was, there's still some members that weren't so sure that a cut was the right thing and would have been in favor of staying. In other words, there's a debate and there's a discrepancy and they're highly data dependent and we're not getting data. So, what we've been doing is trying to get some good alternative data sources, some real time indicators from the banks or from research firms about what's really happening. So, we didn't get the September jobs report, but Goldman Sachs has a jobs tracker that they look at and that they compile and they take all types of things into consideration here, layoff numbers and private payrolls and that sort of thing. So, the Goldman number is in the orange and you can see the blue is the actual non-farm payrolls three-month average that we have. So, it's very well correlated, which is why I chose it to show today. And what it shows at the very end of the chart in the orange is that there's actually a tick up in September and which is why Goldman is actually above consensus expecting job growth in the month of September. Remember, it had gone down to basically negative in June job growth and it's been, I don't know, trickling out in the low numbers.

But according to the Goldman number, it looks like we could maybe see a better number in September if the government ever reopens and we get the jobs report. So that's something maybe not to be so worried about on that front.

Jim Cramer (3:14)

Yeah, well Goldman's forecast for employment is that we're essentially bottoming out right around now. They see us going to closer to 50K, 100K by the middle of next year. So they're fairly constructive although they're still calling for three cuts by the end of the year.

Sara Eisen (3:27)

Right, so the other piece of it is inflation, right? And do we have to worry about an inflation spark because of the tariffs or higher inflation? So here's one for you. It comes from Consumer Edge Research, which looks at all these data points across the consumer. And so this is really a snapshot of CPG, so consumer packaged goods, what we spend on food and beverages and household products in the grocery mostly and big box stores. And they have a weekly indicator of pricing. And this is the weekly indicator. It goes up to September 28th, so CPI, which should be released next week, if we're not shut down, goes up to like early October. So this is a good snapshot. And the reason I show it is because you're not seeing a spike. You know, we're not seeing a big lift, for instance, in food, groceries, staples. That's good. It's not the whole of CPI, but it is a big component of CPI. And it's where, you know, people are sensitive when it comes to higher prices. So they're just, you know, that's in the last few weeks, it's relatively stable.