SOTS 2nd Hour: Nvidia’s China Chip Shipments, Under-the-Radar Retail Metric, New State AI Laws 12/22/25

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Carl Quintanilla (1:00)

Good Monday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with Morgan Brennan, Mike Santoli here at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. David and Sara are off today. We'll see if the bulls can mount a year-end rally here. S&P up about half a percent. VIX below 15 That's going to be about a three-month low. We'll watch that. Treasuries remain in a range as well with the 10-year right around 416 Today, a new report about Nvidia shipping its those H200s to China.

And when it may all begin, we'll get some details. A top analyst says there is an under-the-radar indicator he's watching to determine which retailers will be doing best this holiday season, and he'll explain it coming up. Plus, top venture capitalist Eric Capot on what private AI companies could look like once they do go public and what it means for investors. Let's begin, though, with the market and the set up for stocks going into the new year. Mike Santoli says there are three big questions that still remain, Mike.

Mike Santoli (1:52)

Yes. Well, any number of questions, but three that I think make a lot of sense to focus on, aside from the core variables in a look ahead, which is, of course, earnings outlook. Are we going to get a recession or not? And, you know, what are we going to pay for those earnings? All those three things and where interest rates going, I think they're feeding into this general way to the evidence bullish case, which says, hey, markets up 70% of all years. You don't have a recession in sight. Fed's leaning lower. Earnings consensus is up by double digits, so don't bet against the market. But on top of that, I think the concentration question is still going to be with us. Do we want a market that broadens more from the mega cap dominance? Have we already had a market that's broader than it's been given credit for? I think in some respects it is. The equal weighted S&P is up like 10% this year, so it hasn't just been those seven stocks. The other piece of it is we're going to get a lot of capital raise next year, even more than we had this year, and it's going to probably have to happen more from public investors. So, all the IPOs we have waiting, the AI trade is very hungry, the debt markets are definitely being taxed by what they're having to deliver for that. So, is that going to create a shift in the supply-demand and balance, especially because share buybacks are expected not to go up next year, because all the big companies that buy back a lot of stock are planning to get into data centers. The final point I've been pointing to is Bitcoin, and what if anything it's telling us. With its deep underperformance, it's no longer been linked very closely with risk appetites in tech. Is that telling us that maybe the bloom is off in terms of the speculative energy in Bitcoin, especially when gold and silver are making these new highs? Or is it just a non sequitur and we're just digesting a huge move? All those things I think are in the mix in terms of what could be a tactical swing factors along the way next year.

Morgan Brennan (3:42)

It is interesting because you are seeing, and some folks have pointed this out with Bitcoin, maybe some rotation into other types of cryptocurrencies as you see things like stable coins and blockchain technology come into fintech in a bigger broader way this year. Commodities, what is that telling us? I realize oil is up a little bit with all the Venezuela blockade stuff today, but ex-oil commodities have had a torrid run this year. You've been talking about the reflation trade.

Mike Santoli (4:06)

I think that's what it's telling us, that globally you do have the conditions in place for a little bit of a quickening of growth. It does seem as if you also have some stockpiling on top of that. And, in general, diversifying assets that are not called government bonds have been doing well. I think that's one of the lessons of what's happening in metals as well as everything else. If anything, the weakness in oil point to point this year has understated the strength in commodities, as you say. So whether that's an enduring trend or it's just kind of a little bit of an episode that we're in for now, it's also confirmed to some degree with the cyclical parts of this market that have been trying to get in gear over the last couple of months.