SOTS 2nd Hour: More Market Highs, Opendoor Chairman Rabois, & Today's IPOs To Watch 9/12/25

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Sara Eisen (1:22)

Good Friday morning, welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber. We are live as always from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Big show coming your way. In just a moment, Wharton Professor of Finance, Jeremy Siegel joins us with just days to go until the big Fed decision. We'll get his prediction for rate cuts, the market and more. Plus, it is one of the biggest stock stories of the week, Opendoor, seeing huge gains on news of leadership changes, adding to a breathless rally this year. We'll talk to the new Chairman, Keith Rabois, about his vision for the company and much more on the media news of the day as Paramount Skydance preps a bid for Warner Brothers Discovery.

Carl Quintanilla (1:59)

Let's get the final big economic data point of the week when you miss with Rick Santelli. Hey, Rick.

Rick Santelli (2:04)

Yeah, you know, this has a whiff of stagflation to it, folks. University of Michigan sentiment and all the inflation numbers, the preliminary sepid could still change. Fifty-five point foreign headline. We're expecting a number well north of that. And Rearview Mirror, 58.2, so sequentially lower, lowest since May of 25 61.2 on current conditions. Same scenario. Less than expected. Less than last looked. Sequentially lower. Also the lowest since May. If we look at expectations, what lies ahead? Well, the scenario doesn't change. 51.8, also the lowest since May. This follows 55.9. So there's your weak consumer confidence. Now, let's look at inflation.

4.8 expected. 4.8 remains. But that doesn't dismiss the fact that it's still the highest level since June. Although I do think surveyed inflation, that kind of runs afoul of logic in certain instances, considering it was way up in May at 6.6. And finally, the 5-10 year look, 3.9. That's about a half a percent more than expected. It's four-tenths more than the rear view mirror. And 3.9 to find a higher inflation, you're going back to June when it was 4%.

We started out the year at 3.2%. The recent new water mark was 2.8. That was in March of 24 So I'm surprised we're not getting a little bit more lift on the long end of the market, which didn't spend much time under 4%. It was like a beach ball underwater. It popped right back. Matter of fact, right now, we're getting close to unchanged on the week. We saw the last week at 4.08. Right now, hovering at 4.06. And 4.06 is up four on the day, down only two on the week. We want to pay close attention to how we close, especially after what now looks to be developing on the annual chart is a double bottom on a closing level, basically right around or slightly above 4%. Sara, back to you and have a great weekend.

Sara Eisen (4:02)

You too, Rick. Thank you very much. And just a little more color on that dip in sentiment Rick just reported. According to University of Michigan, particularly a strong dip from lower and middle-income consumers. According to the survey, consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, rising risk to business conditions, labor markets, and inflation. So that's part of the story there. Look, overall, and Rick just pointed out the 10-year yield. Guys, the setup for the Fed, which is next week, the big meeting where everyone expects the first cut to come all year, easy financial conditions. I just want to show you what's been happening. The 10-year yield, obviously, front and center, because that affects a lot of our borrowing rates. And we've gone down to 4%. I mean, a lot of people did not think that we would go south. A lot of people thought with the inflationary pressures built up in the economy and the resilience of the economy, we would go back up to 5%. I'm not ruling it out. I'm just saying there's been a sharp decline, if you look from January, to where we are now. What does that affect? Mortgage rates. We desperately need more lower mortgage rates, right, to get housing affordability back. Well, the good news is, and while they're still elevated, we did see the biggest drop of the year this week in mortgage rates reported. So they're coming down. Things are better. 30-year averaging 6.35% for the week, ending September 11th. That was down from 6.5% the week before. So that may be a thought. Look, we still have some affordability problems in the housing market, but we want to see it go in that direction. And it tees off of the treasury market, not necessarily just the Fed funds rate. And then the stock market, add that to the easy financial conditions. We're at record highs. August was a really good month. If you look at what's happened basically since we bottomed in April around all the tariff mania and the extreme fear around that, it's gone up to record highs. And then the dollar's been weak pretty much all year. And if you add that up... By the way, I'll just add one more thing in, David, because I know you watch this very closely as well.