SOTS 2nd Hour: “Liberation Day” Latest, Goldman’s Chief U.S. Economist on Stocks, & AIG CEO Talks AI 04/01/25

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Market insight and analysis. You're listening to the opening bell of CNBC's Squawk on the Street.

Sara Eisen (1:12)

Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber. Live as always, a post nine of the New York Stock Exchange. Take a look at stocks. We start off a new quarter and a new month in the red. Not sharply, but we are down a third of a percent on the S&P and the Dow down 280 Nasdaq getting hit as well, but fairing a little bit better for a change after an 8% slide in the first quarter. Worst quarter overall for stocks in years. Take a look at Treasuries and how we start off the new month. They're buying bonds, safe haven, as yields go lower. Look at the 10-year. It's 4.165 and the two-year below 3.9%.

So continuation of some of the trends we've seen in the first part of the year.

Carl Quintanilla (1:55)

Getting some ISMs and jolts right now. Let's get back to Rick Santelli. Hey Rick.

Rick Santelli (2:00)

Yes, let's start out with jolts, shall we? Expecting a number for February to around 7,600,000. Comes in just a smidge lower, 7,568,000.

7,568,000. How does that comp? Well, that would be the lowest rate on a month-over-month basis. Going back to, well, the end of last year when it was 7,508,000. So we see it's coming down, but we are really starting to consolidate now. That's three months in a row. We're right around 7,500,000. Let's look at construction spending for February. Expecting up three-tenths. Carl, it's double plus. Up seven-tenths. Almost three-quarters of one percent. That would be the strongest rate going back to October of last year. And last month, here's the problem. Minus two-tenths moves to minus half of one percent in the January read. Now, let's look at ISM Manufacturing, the PMIs. The headline number, 49.0, 49.0. A little bit lower than expectations, and it puts us back in the contraction territory, which means we're going back to the end of last year, where we basically had all 12 months under 50, and January, February of this month were above 50, and of course, this is a March reading. If we look at prices paid, we'd prefer they go down, but that's not the case. 64 plus expected, 69.4, 69.4. That would be the highest rate. We have to really go back on this. That'll be the highest rate going to, well, June of 22 June of 22 If we look at 45.2, that's new orders. That's definitely about 3 points light and sequentially lower. 45.2 would be the weakest rate since May of 23 And finally, if we look at the employment side, employment at 44.7, an important week. Of course, we're going to have Wednesday and Friday employment reports. 44.7 is about 3 points less than expectations. And that would be the weakest level going back to, well, mid last year, mid last year. And here's something we want to pay attention to. Every single number here but prices paid is sequentially lower. And it's unfortunate because prices paid is the one you really want to be sequentially lower. Yields, as Sara pointed out, continue to move lower. 415 in a 10 year will be down six basis points on the day. We're looking at the very minimum if it closed here, a one month low yield close. The short end, not as aggressive as it was yesterday. Two years yesterday closed at the lowest level since early October of 24 Sara, back to you.

Sara Eisen (4:44)

Not great, Rick. Not a great mix of data there that you just reported. Thank you very much, Rick Santelli. A little stag, a little flation there in the lower job openings. Weaker manufacturing but higher prices paid, which as Rick said, we don't necessarily want to have. The question is, what's happening with the economy and what's going to happen with tariffs as it relates to the impact on the economy? Some notable points stood out to me. Comments, for instance, from the head of the IMF, Kristalina Gorgeva, who did acknowledge in a recent interview that growth expectations are coming down, but said we're not seeing a dramatic impact of tariffs yet.